USDA: Oilseed market with cuts compared to previous month
The latest USDA Nov. 24 estimate provided some downward revisions to the global supply situation in the oilseed sector. Total production is estimated to be around 5 million tons lower than in the previous month, confirming a year-on-year increase of only +3.5%. At 682 million tons, production has nevertheless reached a record level.
This contrasts with a consumption volume of 666 million tons (previous year 646 million tons). The result is an increase in stocks of just under 12% to around 147.6 million tons. International trade only changed within a manageable range of 207 million tons on average.
Soybeans continue to expand their market leadership among oilseeds with around 425 million tons (previous year: 395 million tons). Consumption in 2024/25 is expected to remain unchanged at 406 million tons, leaving plenty of scope for an increase in stocks from last year's 112.4 to this year's 131.7 million tons (but slightly less than expected in the previous month).
On the production side, Brazil is far ahead with an unchanged crop of 169 million tons and the USA with a reduced crop of 121.4 million tons. Argentina's production remains unchanged at 51 million tons.
Global exports are led by Brazil with a slight increase of 105.5 million tons of beans plus 20.5 million tons of soybean meal. This is followed by the USA with a reduced export volume of around 49.7 million tons of beans (previous year: 46 million tons) and 16 million tons of soybean meal. Argentina is the main exporter of soybean products in the form of oil (5.5 million tons) and meal (27 million tons); biofuels made from soybean oil are also exported.
At 87.2 million tons, the global rapeseed harvest remains below the previous years' results of around 89 million tons. The main reasons for this are the harvests in the two main growing regions, Canada, with an unchanged estimate of 20 million tons and the weak EU result of only 17.3 million tons. China will reach the 15.8 million tons mark this year, while India is expected to slightly exceed 12 million tons. The high expectations of an above-average rapeseed harvest in Australia were diminished by frost damage.
In the other oilseeds, the poor sunflower results of -10% compared to the previous year, mainly in the Eastern European countries, stand out.
With a production of 80 million tons, palm oil remains the market leader in the vegetable oil sector with a share of 35%. The main production areas are Indonesia with a reduced 46.5 million tons and Malaysia with an unchanged 19.8 million tons. With consumption rising slightly, inventories are down on the previous year's level.
Stock market prices comparatively calm - stock market players remain cautious
Despite the political surprises caused by the Trump election and the traffic light exit, stock market prices largely remained on their previous course: there was little change in wheat last week and rapeseed prices continued their rise for the time being.
