USDA estimates oilseed market with focus on soybeans 5% higher than previous year
The latest USDA estimate (Aug. 12, 2024) forecasts a +5% increase in global oilseed production in 2024/25 to 690 million tons. Consumption is only expected to increase by +3.4 % to 669 million tons. Accordingly, inventories are expected to increase to around 150.5 million tons or +16.5 % compared to the previous year.
The decisive factor is the considerable growth in soybean production from 395 million tons last year to 429 million tons this year. The upcoming Brazilian production of 169 million tons (previous year: 153 million tons) will have a major impact. The upcoming US harvest is also expected to grow at an above-average rate of just under 125 million tons (previous year: 113 million tons). Production in Argentina is forecast to remain unchanged at 51 million tons in the first half of 2025. The South American figures should be interpreted with caution, as sowing does not begin until October.
On the consumption side, China is in first place with a volume of 129 million tons. Of this, 20 million tons are produced domestically and 109 million tons (= 60% of world trade) are imported. By comparison, the EU harvests around 3 million tons itself and imports 14.6 million tons of beans, 16 million tons of meal and 0.5 million tons of soybean oil.
The USDA estimates the global rapeseed harvest at 88.8 million tons, only slightly higher than in the two previous years. The forecast for Canada remains unchanged at 20 million tons, although Statistics Canada only predicted 18.3 million tons. The estimate for the EU-27 is 18.9 million tons. As global rapeseed consumption is estimated to be slightly higher, stocks are expected to be reduced. The supply situation in the rapeseed sector remains tight.
With a share of around one third, palm oil is the market leader in the vegetable oil sector, ahead of soybeans. Indonesia (47 million tons) and Malaysia (19 million tons) account for over 80% of the global harvest of just under 80 million tons. The annual growth rates are slowing considerably because new plantings are rare. After 35 years of use, almost exclusively only replacement plantings are carried out. Indonesia is consuming increasing amounts of palm oil for biodiesel production; exports are therefore tending to decline. The EU imports around 4 million tons with a clear downward trend. Global ending stocks of palm oil are trending downwards, signaling a tighter supply situation. Rapeseed as an oilseed crop is strongly influenced by this.
