USDA: global oilseed production lower than last month - supply remains high
In its latest Jan. 2025 issue, the USDA cut global oilseed production slightly compared to the previous month. Nevertheless, in a multi-year comparison, supply is at a record level of 680 million tons (previous year: 657 million tons). Despite an increase in consumption, stocks are expected to rise by just under +9%. However, differences can be observed in the individual market sectors.
Although global soybean production was estimated to be lower than in the previous month at 424 million tons, it remains at a peak level compared to the previous year's figure of 395 million tons. The decline is mainly due to lower US production. Accordingly, soybean prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange have risen sharply.
Global soybean consumption is estimated at 408 million tons. China remains the world's largest consumer with unchanged imports of 109 million tons and stagnating domestic production of 20.6 million tons. Ending stocks have risen from 112 million tons last year to 128 million tons this year. This means that the supply situation is still above average.
Soybean meal production and consumption are expected to increase slightly to 274 million tons. After China (80 million tons) and the USA (36.5 million tons), the EU-27 is the third largest consumer with 27.7 million tons. EU imports of meal amount to around 16.6 million tons. The largest exporters are Argentina (28 million tons), Brazil (21 million tons) and the USA with 15.8 million tons.
The USDA has downgraded the global rapeseed harvest to 85 million tons (previous year: 89 million tons). This is due to the low results in Canada with 18.8 million tons and the EU with 17.2 million tons. China is expected to reduce its imports from 5.5 to 3 million tons, while the EU-27 is expected to increase its imports to 6.8 million tons. In view of the weak purchasing power of the euro exchange rate, rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange have risen considerably to €543 per tonne.
With a production share of around 35%, palm oil is the market leader in the vegetable oil sector alongside soy. At 79.6 million tons, production is estimated to remain unchanged at the previous month's level, but is around 3 million tons higher than the previous year's figure. This also corresponds to the increase in consumption. Stocks are trending slightly downwards. Although palm oil prices (indicative for rapeseed) have fallen, they are still 20 to 25 % above the 3-year average.
The sunflower harvest was 9.7 % smaller than in the previous year. This was mainly due to the low yields in Ukraine, Russia and Argentina. Despite a reduction in consumption, a noticeable decrease in stocks is expected. The prices for sunflower oil remain correspondingly high and stable.
