USDA downgrades oilseed production in Feb. 2025 estimate.
In the latest Feb. 2025 edition, the US Department of Agriculture has slightly lowered its high estimates of oilseed production in previous months. Nevertheless, total production remains at 678 million tons, or around 20 million tons more than in the previous year. Global consumption is calculated at 670 million tons. This results in an increase in stocks of +5.7% to 140 million tons at the end of the marketing year (previous year 132.5 million tons). This means that the supply situation remains at an all-time high.
With a production share of 62%, soy plays a decisive role. The most recent estimate of production was reduced to 421 million tons (previous month 424 million tons). Compared to the previous year, however, production is still expected to increase by around 25 million tons or +6.5%. Global consumption is estimated at 409 million tons. Ending stocks have risen from 112.5 million tons last year to 124.3 million tons this year, ensuring a favourable supply situation for the time being.
On the production side, Brazil with 169 million tons and the USA with just under 119 million tons are in the lead. Together, they account for around two thirds of global production. The South American country exports 109 million tons of beans, slightly less than in the previous year. The North American country is expected to export 49 million tons, but there are still risks of possible retaliatory tariffs from China. The Argentinian harvest is set back by 3 million tons to 49 million tons compared to the previous month due to the drought.
On the consumption side, China dominates with an unchanged import volume of 109 million tons and domestic production of 12.6 million tons. The EU follows at a considerable distance with a consumption of 14.6 million tons of imported soybeans and 16.6 million tons of soybean meal. The EU's own production is estimated at 2.8 million tons of beans.
The USDA estimates rapeseed production at only 85.3 million tons (previous year: 89.4 million tons). Canada's harvest is estimated at 18.8 million tons, while only 17.24 million tons are estimated for the EU. In China, the figure remains unchanged at 15.8 million tons and the Indian rapeseed harvest is expected to amount to 11.6 million tons. Canada holds the world's largest share of trade with 7.25 million tons or 43%.
After years of steady increases in production, development in the palm oil sector continues to stagnate. In the two largest production areas, Indonesia and Malaysia, which together account for 87% of global production, capacities are largely exhausted. In addition, the weather conditions are currently unfavorable. Exports are also stagnating because palm oil is increasingly being used for domestic biofuel production. Stocks are only just in the lower middle range. Alongside soy, palm oil is considered the market leader in the vegetable oil sector.
The sunflower harvest fell to 20 million tons (previous year: 22 million tons). All major production regions in Russia, Ukraine and the eastern EU countries suffered production losses. Stocks are even tighter and will only reach 75% of the 2022/23 level
