USDA estimates oilseed market remains at highest supply level
The latest monthly report from the USDA once again underlines the far above-average supply situation on the oilseed market. Total production of 683 million tons (previous year 657 million tons) compares with consumption of 668 million tons. The year-end balance sheet shows a further increase in stocks to 147 million tons (previous year 131 million tons)
At 62%, soy has the largest share of production. The global harvest for 2024/25 is again expected to be high at 427 million tons (previous year: 395 million tons). The decisive factors here are the completed US harvest of 121 million tons and the Brazilian production in spring 2025, which is expected to reach 169 million tons. The harvest in Argentina is also expected to be slightly higher at 52 million tons (previous year: 48 million tons).
Global soybean consumption is dominated by China with a volume of 127 million tons. Of this, China's own production amounts to around 20 million tons; around 109 million tons (corresponding to 60% of global trade) are imported into the Middle Kingdom.
The EU-27 imports around 15 million tons of soybeans, plus 16.5 million tons of soybean meal and 0.65 million tons of soybean oil.
The USDA estimates the global rapeseed harvest at 86 million tons (previous year: 89.9 million tons). This does not take into account the most recent harvest in Canada of just over 17 million tons (instead of 18.8 million tons). EU production is confirmed at a low 17.2 million tons (previous year 19.9 million tons). Global rapeseed consumption falls to 88.7 million tons. At 7.1 million tons, stocks are at their lowest level for 7 years.
Sunflowers fell again by almost 10 % after the comparatively favorable production year 2023. The main reason for this is the sharp drop in harvests in Ukraine and Russia. The result in the EU 's cultivation countries also fell sharply.
At 79.6 million tons, global palm oil production was again slightly down on the previous month's estimate. The decisive factors are the harvests in the two largest producing countries, Indonesia with 46.5 million tons and Malaysia with 19.3 million tons, which together account for around 82% of global production. Global consumption increases from 75 to 78 million tons. Indonesia, with its pronounced use for biofuel, and India, with its consumption for human consumption, play the most important roles.
Stock market quotations in the vegetable oil sector are showing firm price trends for the time being. Palm oil prices are setting the tone at €1,122 per tonne in Malaysia. Rapeseed has also risen again under the influence of the unexpectedly weak Canadian harvest.
