USDA raises global oilseed crop to record level
In the July 24 issue of its monthly estimates of the global oilseed market situation, the USDA raises the harvest result to 686 million tons compared to the previous month. In the previous year, production was still at 657 million tons. Soybeans account for the lion's share of production at 422 million tons. Rapeseed comes in at a slightly improved 88 million tons and sunflowers reach just under 55 million tons.
Total oilseed consumption is calculated at 670 million tons, so that a price-dampening increase in stocks is assumed.
Global soybean production is estimated to be +6.4% higher than in the previous year. The largest producer is Brazil, with a volume of 169 million tons forecast for the first half of 2025. Reservations are still required because sowing does not begin until Oct. 2024. The 2024 harvest was 153 million tons.
In the USA, soybean production is expected to reach 120.7 million tons in autumn 2024 (previous year: 113 million tons) due to higher acreage.
Argentine soybean production is stabilizing again at 51 million tonnes, after the 2023 harvest only yielded 25 million tonnes under drought conditions.
In China, production fell to 20.7 million tons due to unfavourable weather conditions. The Middle Kingdom is therefore expected to increase its imports again to 109 million tons (= 60% of global trade).
In the EU-27, soybean production is expected to grow to 3 million tons. A further 14 million tons of bean imports and 17 million tons of soybean meal imports are required to cover consumption.
The global supply situation on the soybean market in 2024/25 will be characterized by rising stocks. This will limit the upward price trend.
Global rapeseed production is estimated to be slightly lower than in the previous month at just under 87.9 million tons (previous year: 88.7 million tons). The USDA estimates the Canadian harvest at around 20 million tons (previous year: 18.8 million tons), of which 7.4 million tons (previous year: 6.4 million tons) will be exported. The EU rapeseed harvest is estimated at 18.9 million tons; 6.3 million tons are expected to be imported to cover demand. China's rapeseed production will fall to 15.6 million tons; imports are estimated at 3.7 million tons.
Measured against the declining stocks, the global rapeseed market in 2024/25 will be much more tightly supplied than in the two previous years. Accordingly, rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange range from €450 to €500 per tonne.
The production of vegetable oils is estimated to increase to 228 million tons. Of this, palm oil accounts for around 80 million tons, of which around 47 million tons are mainly exported from Indonesia and Malaysia. Soybean oil production reaches around 65 million tons and rapeseed oil is in 3rd place with just under 34 million tons. The changes in volume are small.
The global supply of vegetable oils remains tight. The previously high growth in palm oil is no longer taking place. The comparatively low oil content of soybeans can only make a limited contribution despite large harvests. Oilseed rape therefore benefits from the tight supply situation with correspondingly above-average prices.
