Soybeans showed a mixed trend at the start of the week. In Chicago, the May contract rose by 0.50 US cents to close at 1159.75 US cents/bushel, while the July contract fell by 0.25 US cents to 1175.00 US cents/bushel. There was little change in the later dates. May meal also fell by 0.40 US cents to 314.90 US cents/bushel.
From a trader's point of view, the weak export figures weighed on the market. At 586,427 tons, weekly shipments were well below the previous week and the previous year. The 27% shortfall in the current marketing year is particularly significant. This signals subdued demand and has a clearly bearish effect. At the same time, firmer soybean oil prices provided some stabilization and prevented greater losses.
The focus is also on the upcoming USDA report on acreage and stocks. A significant increase in soybean areas in the US and higher stocks are expected. Both would expand supply and have a correspondingly dampening effect on prices if the estimate is confirmed.
Internationally, Brazil remains a dominant factor. The harvest is already 75 percent in, with production estimated at 178.4 million tons. The high level underlines the comfortable global supply situation and puts additional pressure on the market.
However, support is coming from the vegetable oil markets. Canola in Winnipeg rose sharply, as did rapeseed in Paris with significant increases. This development has a supporting effect on the soy complex and limits the downside potential.
