The latest developments on the oilseed market, particularly for soybeans, show clear downward pressure on prices. Despite the publication of new USDA data, futures prices were unable to record a bullish countermovement. On Friday, soybean futures lost between six and nine cents. While soybean meal futures fell by 90 cents to USD 1.80 per tonne, soybean oil futures were able to make up some ground with a slight gain of twelve to 26 points. A private export announcement about the sale of 219,000 tons of new soybeans to Mexico by the USDA could not stop the downward trend.
In the monthly USDA WASDE report, the following adjustments were made: For the old crop, US export figures were increased by about 0.41 million tons, which was offset by an equal cut in residual requirements, leaving the carryover at about 9.53 million tons. In the new harvest, production was reduced by around 0.14 million tons to approximately 118 million tons due to reduced acreage. Exports were reduced by around 1.91 million tons, while processing was increased by around 1.36 million tons. This led to an increase in forecast final stocks of around 0.41 million tons to 8.44 million tons.
From a global perspective, Argentinian production for 2024/25 was raised by 0.9 million tons to 49.9 million tons, while Brazilian production remained unchanged at 169 million tons. Global ending stocks for 2025/26 increased by 0.77 million tons to 126.07 million tons.
At 179.88 million tons, Safras & Mercado's estimates for the Brazilian soybean harvest in 2025/26 are significantly higher than the USDA's 175 million tons. The area under cultivation is expected to grow by around 576,000 hectares to 48.2 million hectares.
Overall, the soybean market is under pressure due to the increased global supply prospects, particularly from South America. The changed positioning of speculative traders signals a cautious approach to the market.
