17.
05.14
Rape rates in the decision-making phase

Ölsaaten Cockpit, 17.05.2014

Bullish
  • Weather-related uncertainties of the coming crops
  • El Nino damage to the rear harvest dates of the marketing year
Bearish
  • 2014/15: 2. bumper harvest in a row
  • Chinese demand is not as plying
  • Livestock with partial decline

Forward rates for selected oilseeds

Converted into € je

Aug 14

Nov 14

Jan 15

Maerz15

May 15

Rape, Paris

360

364

-

366,50

366,5

Rape, Winnipeg

Jul-14: 324,96

323,21

325.00

326,32

-

Soybean meal, Chicago

366,81

315,31

Dec. 14: 312,41

-

-

Palm oil, Chicago

582,48

580,11

585,40

589,60

590,51

Rape: despite growth in the shadow of other oilseeds

The worldwide production of rapeseed is estimated 2014/15 to 68.6 million tons, about 1.5 million tonnes less than in the previous record year. The rape production increased in the last 10 years + 20 million tons and 40%, respectively. With the harvest area + 10 million ha or + 33% had the largest share. The global average yields improved only by 1.78 t / ha to 189 t / ha. It is however to consider that a significant portion of summer rape (including in Canada) it is and cultivated rape to border locations.

The world's largest producer is the EU with a current estimate of harvest 2014 amounting to 21.5 million tonnes slightly higher than last year. The EU import demand is for years between 2.5 to 3 million tonnes and is classified for 2014/15 to approximately 2.9 million tonnes.

Canada reaps the so-called canola canola (gene-modified spring swede rape) in the estimated size of 15.4 million tonnes mainly in the autumn of 2014.  The previous year was a unique record with 18 million tonnes due to the long off maturing in the autumn of 2013. The current classification of the USDA beg. May 2014 could have fallen already too high because surprisingly large reductions in favour of beans cultivation revealed the determination of acreage in Canada. The ongoing cold spring weather is likely to further delays and redesignation of areas have done.

Canada exported annually to the 8 million tonnes of canola in all over the world, but with focus on China and India. In Europe, the goods due to the GMO authorisation conditions is not permitted. Canada's canola trade claimed more than 60% of total world trade.

In third place, China stands with 14.5 million tonnes of rapeseed cultivation. However, this result has hardly changed in recent years. The Chinese agricultural policy deliberately on the growth of crops such as rapeseed, soybean, and sunflower and increasingly attractive maize cultivation. China imports about 3.5 million t rape seed with only moderate annual increases to the processing in the country. For comparison, the annual import of soybean is at about 70 million tonnes and will average between 3 and 5 million tonnes per year increases.

India is one of the largest production areas with a predicted harvest volume of 7.5 million tonnes in the year 2014. In contrast to China, India introduces no raw material, but imported in varying amounts of rapeseed oil to between 10,000 and 100,000 tons. In the course of the years 2014 50,000 t rapeseed oil imports are expected. Palm oil imports from Malaysia and Indonesia are cheaper.

In an equity production of 2,000 tons, Japan introduces constant consistent amount of 2.45 million tonnes of canola to the processing in the country for years.  

The European import demand is still Australia with fluctuating weather conditions orders of magnitude from 2 to 4 million tonnes in consideration. Australia's advantage in largely free of GMO varieties, which are approved for the EU. Depending on the crop failure, 1.5 to 2 million tonnes can be, exported thereof with China for shipping reasons, however, has a strong competitive advantage.

Small amounts of canola are grown in Ukraine and Belarus . Also, these varieties are mostly GMO free. However the exports below the 1 million tonnes mark potentials. The familiar reasons of conflict in Ukraine, no big deals for political reasons and also because actually low availability will be expected.

The global supply situation in the market of rapeseed is considered largely balanced. Compared to the situation two years ago, the overlay stocks almost doubled and should remain for 2014/15 on this level. Stand structure is essential to thank the Canadian bumper crop of last year.

Attributable to the increase of in rape rates in the spring months just above the €400 per t brand in Europe is also gone, like the low-flying on the Winnipeger stock exchange. The main reason for the divergence was fixed Canadian canola warehouses to the INDENE by Frost and snow. For months, the world's largest provider of export market was cut off.

Now two courses towards more each other. However the price development is determined not only by the canola market itself but rather the two market leaders in the oilseed sector influence the soya bean and palm oil.

As the table above shows, a few movements are anticipated for the upcoming dates.

Rape rates in the decision-making phase
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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

An upcoming 2. bumper crop in the oilseed sector in order significantly narrows the price margin for the rape market 2014/15. A reorientation brings back the rates after the release of the Canadian canola market in "Normal cars". However, "Normality" in terms of scarce U.S. soy market is not established yet and will take time to complete.

The now relatively stable listed forward rates of the major oilseeds for the autumn/winter months signal a calming of the markets, but with some corrections and unknown risks looming.  The course show tendencies but more leeway to below as to the top.

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11.
05.24
14:38

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13.
04.24
09:21

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21.
03.24
12:56

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