Ölsaaten News, 02/03/2023

The focus of the oilseed markets, especially the soybean markets, is on Argentina and Brazil. Soybeans were able to increase slightly on a weekly basis, soybean meal increased significantly. Only soybean oil shows only minor changes on a weekly basis. For the whole of January, soybeans gained 21.75 US cents/bu in the March contract on the CBoT. Overall, however, the market trend is volatile. At the beginning of the week, the soybean prices were pulled down by the rain showers in Argentina, but the weather forecast for the weekend has turned around again completely. As confirmed by the grain exchange in Buenos Aires, the rains have helped the plants, but the severe drought damage is likely to remain and the harvest will continue to be relatively small. In a report by the USDA, the ministry's experts expect Argentine soybean production to be 36 million tons. That would be the lowest value in over 14 years and also 9.5 million tons lower than the USDA had last expected. Compared to the previous year, 6 million tons less would be collected. StoneX raised its forecast for the Brazilian crop to 154.2 million tons.So far, the trading company's analysts had expected a harvest of 153.8 million tons. On the export front, however, Brazilian exports were somewhat lower. Around 35 percent fewer soybeans were exported compared to January of the previous year. As previously expected, soybean processing figures in the US have fallen from last year's level. US export sales released yesterday were in line with expectations at 736,000 tonnes. The increased soybean meal prices on the CBoT are also noticeable on the local cash markets. Soybean meal was quoted higher in all places in Germany. Nevertheless, the EU import statistics show that soybean imports have fallen significantly. Sunflowers and sunflower meal imports have picked up. Large quantities in particular come from the Ukraine. Raos has been volatile over the past week. On a weekly basis, the Euronext/Matif scoreboard showed a small plus of 2 euros yesterday. In January, rapeseed lost EUR 42.50 per ton in the new front date of May 23. On the first trading day of the new year, the May date was still quoted at a closing price of 5873.50 euros/t.With the start of today's trading day, green signs are again showing up for the front dates, while the dates from 2024 onwards have not yet experienced any turnover by noon today. The supply situation with rapeseed in Europe is still above average. Imports are at a significantly higher level than in the previous year. With an import volume of 4.47 million tons in the current marketing year, around 1.37 million tons more rapeseed were imported into the EU than at the same time in the previous marketing year. The cash market turnover remains manageable, but the prices were mostly able to increase on a weekly basis. Canola in Winnipeg fell yesterday. A stronger Can dollar slows down export fantasies a little. Statistics Canada will release December population estimates shortly. According to the general market expectation, these are likely to be around a third higher than in December 2021. At that time, the stocks were significantly lower due to the very weak canola harvest in Canada.