Ölsaaten News, 02/10/2023

Rapeseed was able to strengthen and increase in price over the course of the week. On the trading day yesterday, however, rapeseed prices on the Euronex/Matif in Paris were again significantly reduced. With a daily loss of EUR 6.50, the front month of May 2023 closed yesterday at EUR 547.75. On Thursday last week, the price at the closing bell was 544.25 euros/t. With the start of today's trading day, rapeseed slipped back to this level. In the daily high, 547 euros were traded today until Wednesday. The daily low so far is 543 euros/t. The situation on the local cash markets has largely not changed. Sales are low - also because many producers have already sold their quantities directly during the harvest or well before the harvest. By February 5th in the current marketing year, European imports had reached a volume of 4.61 million tons. The main supplier with a share of around 56 percent is the Ukraine. With a share of just over 36 percent, Australia is Europe's second largest supplier of oilseed. By far the largest demand for rapeseed from third countries is Belgium, which has imported slightly more than 1 million tons in the current marketing year. According to the EU Commission's import statistics, Germany is in 5th place with a quantity of 620.662 tons by 02/05/2023. The EU Commission also announced this week that the rapeseed harvest in 2022 was 19.6 million tons, which is 2.5 million tons more than in 2021. The consumption of rapeseed is also down due to high demand Biopower fallow and for animal feed still high. Thus, 24.2 million tons of rapeseed should be needed this financial year. According to the estimates of the EU Commission, the need for imports will fall and will still amount to 5.1 million tons, which is 8 percent less than in the previous financial year. However, as described, the current import figures show that the import volume has been higher up to now. While the Federal Statistical Office for Germany estimates a 7.6% increase in rapeseed acreage to a good 1.2 million hectares, the French analysis company Strategie Grains assumes that the European harvest will be around the previous year's result of 19, 5 million tons. On the other hand, according to Strategie Grains, the areas under cultivation for soybeans and sunflowers are likely to have increased significantly. Canada's statistics agency reported earlier this week that compared to the previous year as of December 31. around 24.7 percent more canola are in storage.This is mainly due to better production, which is 32 percent higher. Chicago soybean futures reversed this week. In pre-market trading on Friday, the various delivery contracts are inconsistent. The good export and harvest prospects for Brazil are primarily weighing on US trade. The USDA corrected global production downwards in the February WASDE on Wednesday and the ending stocks were also reduced. However, global consumption is also falling. Brazil's export potential is seen at 92 million tons, previously 91 million tons had been expected. But the USDA also increased the export volume for Paraguay. According to many market observers, because of the sluggish harvest in Brazil, Brazilian goods are likely to be available for export for a longer period of time. In the USA itself, the processing volume of soybeans has recently fallen and is expected to do so for the rest of the season. Argentina's harvest outlook has been reduced by the USDA. Instead of the previously expected 45.5 million tons, the USDA analysts are now expecting 41.0 million tons.The grain exchanges in Argentina are more skeptical about the harvest there. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is still expecting a harvest of 38 million tons, lowering its own estimate by 3 million tons. The Rosario Grains Exchange also reduced its production estimate this week by 2.5 million tons to just 34.5 million tons. On the other hand, soybean meal on the CBoT can benefit significantly from the effects of the drought in Argentina. On Thursday of last week, the price on the CBoT scoreboard was US$ 484.70/short ton at the closing bell, it was US$ 492.70 yesterday evening. The US export sales published yesterday were in line with expectations.