Ölsaaten News, 02/24/2023

Over the last five trading days, rapeseed prices in Paris have fallen. The leading May date closed yesterday, Thursday, with a daily loss of EUR 13.75 per tonne, after significant double-digit growth was also achieved over the course of the week. Since Thursday last week, however, rapeseed has lost a total of 10 euros per tonne. With the start of trading on Friday, there is sideways movement on the Euronext/Matif. The spot market prices have risen slightly in a weekly comparison. Rapeseed meal is still unchanged. Due to technical problems, the EU Commission was again unable to publish current import figures for oilseeds this week. It is not yet known when export and import figures will be available again. On the anniversary of Russia's attack on Ukraine, concerns remain over the so-called grain deal, which includes shipping rapeseed across the Black Sea. Russia's officials had recently voiced criticism of the agreement, particularly because Western countries are still avoiding Russian agricultural goods. The Ukrainian government aims to extend the agreement by at least twelve months. The future will be negotiated next week.The agreement is valid until March. As the Association of the Oilseed Processing Industry (OVID) reported yesterday, the supply situation with edible oils and protein feed has normalized. In particular, the sunflower exports from the Ukraine, which are good again and which account for 94 percent of total imports in Germany, are doing well again. However, the association is concerned about the still high energy costs, which are threatening the existence of many oil mills. The OVID confirms the previous forecasts for rapeseed cultivation in Germany and expects a cultivation area of around 1.1 million hectares in the republic. This means that rapeseed cultivation in Germany has increased for the fourth time in a row. Overall, the rapeseed market is being supported by firmer developments in vegetable oils overall and positive indications from the soybean market. Soybeans increased in price by 10 US cents/bu on a weekly basis in the front month of March 2023 and positive trends are also evident again with the start of pre-market trading on Friday. Yesterday the beans were quoted with a red sign. At the Agriculture Outlook Forum of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the experts are assuming that the area under soybean cultivation in the USA will be around the same level as last year.The weekly export bookings are still expected for today, Friday. Because of the public holiday on Monday, these numbers come a day late. The situation in South America has not changed significantly in the meantime. The soybean harvest in Brazil is running at a slower pace compared to the previous year. Because of the slower harvest, Anec, the association of agricultural exporters in Brazil, expects exports of corn and soy in February to be lower than a year earlier. In Argentina it remains dry and the plants are affected by the drought situation. As in almost every week, the grain exchange in Buenos Aires lowered its forecast this week. Instead of the 38 million tons forecast last week, 33.5 million tons are now expected. At the beginning of the season, the grain exchange announced a harvest volume of 48 million tons. At the CBoT, however, the view is becoming more and more widespread that the Argentinian shortfalls will be offset by the record harvest in Brazil. Although individual analysts had recently corrected the Brazilian harvest slightly downwards, everything still points to a record soybean harvest. Soybean meal fell slightly at the CBoT.On the cash markets in Germany, on the other hand, the price quotations for soybean meal are increasing. For example, a new all-time high was recorded for the average price determination for soybean meal 44/7 this week. Like soybeans, soybean oil is traded in a volatile manner, but was also able to increase slightly on a weekly basis. The crude oil markets have not given any support recently. Although Brent and WTI were trading a little higher yesterday, they had previously declined for six consecutive trading days. This Friday afternoon, the North Sea variety Brent is trading at USD 82.66 per barrel and is thus again somewhat firmer compared to the previous day.