Ölsaaten News, 03/17/2023

For ten trading days in a row, rapeseed has been going downhill. Yesterday, the Paris Stock Exchange posted another loss of 9.25 euros/t for the May contract. Trading for the front month ended yesterday with a closing price of 472.25 euros/t. The May contract on the Euronext/Matif has lost 56 euros since the beginning of the month. Accordingly, the spot market prices are also significantly weaker. Oilseed is under pressure from many sides. On the one hand, there is the extension of the grain agreement for Ukraine. Although this is not yet a done deal, as the negotiating parties still have to agree on the details, no market participant seriously assumes that the agreement will fail in the last few meters. Formally, the agreement expires this weekend. According to Ukraine, around 5 million tons of rapeseed have been transported across the Black Sea since the beginning of the first agreement. In Europe, imports continue to run at full speed, which makes supplying the market in this country very comfortable. In particular, shipments from Australia are currently arriving on the continent. Until 12.3. In the current marketing year, 5.75 million tons of rapeseed have been imported into Europe.This means that the total import quantity for the entire previous marketing year has already been exceeded. The German Raiffeisen Association published its first harvest forecast for the coming rapeseed harvest in Germany this week. As already suspected, the acreage has increased significantly. The plus is 7.5 percent and an area of 1.16 million hectares. In particular, in Lower Saxony (+14.3 percent), in Baden-Württemberg (+12.9 percent) and in Saxony-Anhalt with an increase of 14 percent, the areas have grown significantly. In the forecast of the harvest volume, the DRV is nevertheless assuming a slight decline in the rapeseed volume, since the yields per hectare are estimated to be lower than in the previous year. According to this, around 4.23 million tons of rapeseed would be harvested, compared to 4.28 million tons in the previous year. Soybeans on the CBoT were able to gain in the past week. In the last two days in particular, prices have been driven by hopes of increasing demand for beans from China. The exporters take hope mainly from the currently high corn orders, which the Middle Kingdom is triggering in the USA. There is also little news from Latin America.The cultivation situation in Argentina has still not improved, even if precipitation has been announced for the coming week. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange recently lowered its soybean forecast for its own country again. Compared to the previous forecast, the stock exchange now expects 4 million tons less. With 25 million tons - as forecast - that would be the smallest harvest since 1999/2000 in the South American country. In Brazil, on the other hand, the harvesters continue to run and are now making better progress. According to analyst estimates, around 50 percent of the original area should have been harvested. However, turbulence on the crude oil markets and the American financial markets caused volatility. With the insolvency of the Silicon Valley Bank, prices were under pressure, especially at the beginning of this week.