Ölsaaten News, 03/24/2023

Raps also went downhill this week. However, the oilseed managed to produce clearly green signs again yesterday, Thursday, and also with the start of trading today. Currently (12.30 p.m.) the front month of rapeseed is at EUR 449.50 and thus EUR 13.25 per tonne higher than at the closing bell yesterday. On a weekly basis, however, it remains a clear minus. From last Friday to the close of trading yesterday, Thursday, the leading May date lost 45.25 euros/t and thus continued the downward trend that had existed since the beginning of March. It remains to be seen whether the two positive trading days this week will herald a trend reversal. Canola also came under selling pressure this week due to the extension of Ukraine's grain deal. The lower demand for rapeseed meal on the local cash markets also resulted in negative signs. According to dealer circles, the demand for shot in this country has largely come to a standstill. Buyers are predominantly well supplied with goods for the first half of 2023. Overall, the growth conditions for the coming harvest continue to be viewed as positive.In an initial assessment, the EU forecasting service MARS published a yield per hectare of 3.29 t/ha for the coming harvest. That would be slightly less than in the previous year, but the five-year average would be exceeded by 6 percent. Support for rapeseed came from the International Grains Council, which predicted that Europe's soybean imports would continue to fall and that more and more rapeseed meal and sunflower meal would be found in animal feed compared to soybean meal. In fact, the import volumes of soybeans and soybean meal have been declining for years. However, the lower number of animals, especially pigs, also means that the demand for oil meal for feeding purposes continues to fall. All in all - and this is putting the greatest pressure on the price structure - market supply in Europe is comfortable overall. Increasing amounts are arriving from Australia at European ports. By March 19, 2023, the EU countries had imported a total of 5.86 million tons of rapeseed. At the same time in the previous year, it was only 3.80 million tons. This means that more rapeseed has already been imported into the EU than in the entire last marketing year. In 2021/22 the total import counter stood at 5.51 million tons.Canola on the ICE in Winnipeg fell this week compared to the previous year despite good export figures, but was able to experience a significant increase in trade again yesterday. The May contract there rose by 15.2 Can dollars to 735.20 Can dollars/t. At the current exchange rate, this corresponds to a price of 495.92 euros/t and a daily profit of 10.25 euros/t. Soybeans on the CBoT also went south this week. Although trading days here alternated with losses and profits several times, a minus of 57 US cents/bu remains on a weekly basis. SOYA is also losing again in pre-market trading this Friday, although the losses are not as significant as yesterday, Thursday, when traders were quoted a daily loss of 29 US cents/bu in the front month of May 2023 alone. The cultivation situation in Argentina continues to be a dominant topic in the soybean market. This week, however, the Buenos Aires grain exchange did not lower its soybean production forecast for the country. The recent rain showers that fell this week seem to have stabilized the earnings outlook.Nevertheless, the grain exchange in Rosario assumes that the country will switch from being an exporter to a soy importer in order to utilize the meal production capacities. The hope of the past week that China will also go on a soy shopping spree after the large corn purchases in the USA is currently not evident. The export sales published yesterday disappointed with a sales volume of 350,000 tons and thus undercut even the most pessimistic analyst estimates. In terms of prices, soybeans were also adversely affected by the turbulence on the American financial market caused by the difficulties of some banks due to interest rate adjustments by the Fed. As a result, crude oil prices also fell significantly, putting pressure on soybean oil and soybean prices. In the slipstream of the weaker bean prices, soybean meal also fell this week. This development is also reflected in the listings on the local cash markets. On the CBoT, soybean meal in the front month of May closed yesterday at a closing price of US$ 438.30 (€445.06/t). Last Friday, the display board of the CBoT.