IGC expects record soybean harvest in 2024/25

Ölsaaten News, 04/22/2024

  • Lower harvest expectations Europe 2024/25
  • Declining rapeseed cultivation in Germany
  • Rising demand for soybean oil in the USA expected
  • Uncertainties Ukraine/geopolitical tensions overall
  • Growing global soybean cultivation
  • Harvest pressure South America
  • US dollar development
  • Economic concerns China
Spot markets at a glance Euro/ton
Rapeseed 22 Mar. 4 Apr. 4 Apr. 11 Apr. 18 Apr. +/-
Hamburg 452,00 439,00 431,00 439,00 426,00 -13,00
Straubingen 443,00 430,00 426,00 434,00 421,00 -13,00
Soybean meal
Hamburg 411,00 391,00 382,00 379,00 385,00 6,00
Magdeburg 421,00 401,00 392,00 389,00 395,00 6,00
Mainz 423,00 409,00 401,00 401,00 400,00 -1,00
Rapeseed meal
Hamburg 289,00 299,00 298,00 292,00 292,00 0,00
Hamm 310,00 289,00 297,00 299,00 293,00 -6,00
Lower Rhine 300,00 291,00 291,00 292,00 286,00 -6,00

Rapeseed prices remained volatile. Over the past week, the front month maize fell. While it was still quoted at 459.00 euros/t on Friday of the previous week, it stood at 449.00 euros/t on Friday of last week. Since the beginning of April, however, rapeseed has made significant gains overall. On the last trading day in March, the May futures contract closed at 439 Euro/t. Some quantities are sometimes traded on the cash markets, but overall the stocks of the last harvest in Germany are likely to have been largely cleared. Fresh import figures for Europe have not been available recently due to technical problems. Overall, however, there are signs of a good supply situation in this country due to deliveries from Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. The situation is different for rapeseed meal. Prices are firm and have risen in the last week. Availability has improved, but is still not plentiful. Canola in Canada on the ICE has recently been under pressure. Export demand is weaker again and the Canadians have also been able to export less canola for the year as a whole. Exports in the current marketing year amount to 4.37 million tons. At this time last year, the figure was 6.42 million tons.

Exports also play a role in the soybean market. On Friday, soybean prices recorded a significant recovery. This development is not considered to be sustainable. Although the USDA announced higher export sales, last week's export figures were disappointing overall. Harvest pressure from Brazil and Argentina is weighing on demand for US soybeans. In addition, the US dollar has gained significantly in value over the last two weeks, dampening export prospects. On Thursday, the International Grains Council updated its assessment of global soybean production for the coming harvest. There was no change compared to March. The IGC continues to expect a record harvest of 413 million tons. There were adjustments for South American production from private analysts. However, there was no unanimous trend here. Overall, however, the estimates fall short of the USDA's forecasts from the last WASDE. On the local cash markets, soybean meal prices rose again slightly over the week. Overall, however, there has been a clear downward trend since the beginning of the year. On a weekly basis, soybean meal is almost unchanged on the Chicago exchange.

IGC expects record soybean harvest in 2024/25
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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The oilseed markets have recently been under latent pressure. While the price setbacks for rapeseed are more manageable, the South American harvest is weighing more heavily on soybean prices. The still shaky expectations for the soybean harvest in the coming season are also a fundamental negative factor.

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