The downward trend in oilseeds continues this week. In the most traded August date this week, rapeseed had already lost 17.50 euros per tonne by yesterday, Thursday, and prices are also weaker today. By the early afternoon, prices had fallen to a daily low of 432 euros/t. The closing price for the August date yesterday was EUR 440.00 per ton. Weaker prices were also seen on the spot markets with little turnover and Canola on the ICE in Winnipeg had to cope with one of the strongest daily losses this year, especially yesterday. Soybeans also trended south this week. Overall, the news situation for rapeseed has changed little. Only the acreage estimates for Canada published by the Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday brought real news. Accordingly, the canola acreage grew by 0.9% compared to the previous year, market observers had previously expected stronger growth in arable land. The EU import figures are still at a very high level and ensure sufficient market availability. In the latest MARS report, the EU forecasting service slightly increased the estimated yields per hectare for rapeseed.Instead of the previous 3.29 t/ha, 3.31 t/ha is now expected. That is 7% more than the average of the last five years and the previous year's yield of 3.1 t/ha is also exceeded. The EU forecasting service has also increased yields per hectare in Germany to an average of 3.88 tons per hectare. The five-year average value determined by MARS is 3.47 t/ha. In its second harvest estimate last week, the German Raiffeisen Association had expected yields of 3.66 tons and saw the total harvest for Germany at 4.25 million tons. Despite the larger acreage, the harvest should still be slightly lower than last year. In the soybean complex, the harvest work in Brazil and the associated price competition for US exporters had an impact on the mood at the CBoT. The crop failure in Argentina is thus becoming more and more in the background. The USDA also expects a further increase in Brazilian soybean production in the coming year. If these figures are correct, this year's harvest record of 152 million tons should be exceeded by another 6 million tons.US farmers are also making good progress with soybean planting, and the weather conditions in the most important growing areas in the Cornbelt continue to be positive. Falling crude oil prices as a result of economic concerns have recently put soy meal and soybean prices under pressure. Overall, vegetable oils fell this week. Palm oil in Malaysia also went south. The government in Indonesia is apparently planning measures to boost palm oil exports and has eliminated or suspended trade barriers for local exporters.
| Cash markets in view | euros/ton | ||||||||||
| canola | Mar 30 | Apr 5 | Apr 13 | Apr 20 | Apr 27 | +/- | |||||
| Hamburg | 481.00 | 459.00 | 435.00 | 459.00 | 440.00 | -19.00 | |||||
| Straubingen | 481.00 | 460.00 | 436.00 | 460.00 | 441.00 | -19.00 | |||||
| soybean meal | |||||||||||
| Hamburg | 516.00 | 505.00 | 502.00 | 484.00 | 460.00 | -24.00 | |||||
| Magdeburg | 526.00 | 515.00 | 512.00 | 494.00 | 470.00 | -24.00 | |||||
| Mainz | 539.00 | 527.00 | 509.00 | 509.00 | 495.00 | -14.00 | |||||
| rapeseed meal | |||||||||||
| Hamburg | 343.00 | 338.00 | 338.00 | 338.00 | 338.00 | 0.00 | |||||
| Hamm | 345.00 | 340.00 | 343.00 | 366.00 | 359.00 | -7.00 | |||||
| Lower Rhine | 340.00 | 340.00 | 340.00 | 357.00 | 353.00 | -4.00 | |||||
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The 2023/24 rapeseed harvest looks even better than this year. Rapeseed prices are now a long way from the all-time high a year ago and are almost at an average level. The market supply has developed very comfortably, but at the same time there is a lack of really sustainable impulses, for example from the biodiesel industry. Big soybean harvest in Brazil puts pressure on CBoT soybean prices. The renewed concerns about the economy in the USA and the current weakness in demand indicate that prices are likely to remain under pressure in the coming week.
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