05.
05.23
Rapeseed and soybeans slightly up

Ölsaaten News, 05/05/2023

Bullish
  • drought in Argentina
  • Uncertainty continuation grain agreement
  • war in Ukraine
Bearish
  • Production forecasts EU and Canada
  • Record harvest in Brazil
  • good supply situation in Europe

Cash markets at a glance Euro/tonne of rapeseed Apr 5 Apr 13 Apr 20 Apr 27 May 4. +/- Hamburg 459.00 435.00 459.00 440.00 434.00 -6.00 Straubingen 460.00 436.00 460.00 441.00 426.00 -15.00 Soya meal Hamburg 505.00 502, 00 484.00 460.00 447.00 -13.00 Magdeburg 515.00 512.00 494.00 470.00 457.00 -13.00 Mainz 527.00 526.00 495.00 495.00 464.00 -31.00 Rapeseed meal Hamburg 343.00 338.00 338.00 338.00 338.00 0.00 Hamm 345.00 340.00 343.00 366.00 359.00 -7.00 Niederrhein 340.00 340, 00 340.00 357.00 353.00 -4.00

Rapeseed was volatile this week. The bottom line is that the most traded August date was quoted yesterday evening at EUR 443.00 per tonne, but EUR 3 more than on Thursday of last week. On the other hand, prices on the cash markets are slightly weaker than at the end of last week. Rapeseed meal also usually yields. With the start of today's trading day, there are again friendly price trends in oilseed. In a special assessment of the European rapeseed harvest, the USDA assumed a quantity of 19.3 million tons for the coming harvest. That would be around 0.6 percent less than was achieved in the current financial year. At the end of last week, however, the EU Commission increased EU rapeseed production to 20 million tons, which would correspond to a higher harvest of around 500,000 tons compared to the previous year. Overall, the Commission continues to expect significantly higher oilseed production than in the previous year and on average over the last five years. In addition to rapeseed production, the sunflower harvest and the soybean harvest are also expected to pick up. Overall, the EU's own oilseed production should therefore increase by 11.89 percent compared to the average in recent years and reach a volume of 33.38 million tons.The producers are very satisfied with the overall condition and development of the rapeseed fields. In Canada, the sowing work for the summer crops is progressing well, and the weather conditions are also playing into the hands of the farmers here. Accordingly, the contracts on the ICE in Winnipeg for the coming harvest were under slight pressure, especially yesterday. Trading on the soybean market was also volatile this week. The bottom line is that soybeans have increased slightly on a weekly basis. The overall bullish sentiment in agricultural markets has contributed to this. US soybean seeding continues to make good progress. On the export front, on the other hand, more attractive offers from Brazil are reducing demand from US exporters. In the week ending April 27th. USDA has registered soybean bookings of over 290,000 tons, compared to 311,000 tons a week earlier. This was well below the analysts' estimates in advance. Increased concerns about the economy and a significant drop in crude oil prices also put pressure on the soybean market. The harvest prospects for Argentina hardly play a significant role in the news situation.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Oilseeds were able to gain ground in price terms this week. This is mainly due to the uncertainty regarding the further development of Ukrainian agricultural exports. Overall, however, the bearish news seems to prevail. Brazil is active on the world market with cheap soybean offers and has a large harvest, EU rapeseed production and the better prospects for Canada should also speak for a good supply situation in the coming marketing year.

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