Raps went south this week. Yesterday, in the new front month of August, a closing price of 425.00 euros/t was on the display board at Euronext/Matif. Last Monday it was 10 euros more. The supply of rapeseed is also comfortable because of the continued high imports. A few remaining quantities are still in the producers' warehouses, but this is not much anymore. However, these quantities should be sold by the coming harvest. The traded quantities of rapeseed are manageable, prices also fell this week, although the decline was not as great as on the Paris stock exchange. Rapeseed meal has mostly hardly changed in price and is mostly stable to marginally firmer. The conditions for rapeseed in the coming harvest are proving to be favorable in large parts of Europe. The EU Commission had last expected a rapeseed harvest of 20 million tons and a total oilseed harvest of around 33 million tons at the end of April. In Canada, farmers are still busy sowing and are making good progress. In addition to the good supply situation, declining prices for crude oil and soybeans also weighed on the price development.With the start of trading this Friday, rapeseed has mostly increased slightly on the Euronext/Matif. However, the gains cannot offset the losses of the entire week. The soy complex was volatile this week, but ended the week in the red so far. Today the beans start the day a little friendlier. The competition for US exporters from Brazil is still fierce. The industry association ANEC even recently raised its forecast for Brazil's May exports to one of the highest May values ever. The weekly export sales and actual export shipments published yesterday by the USDA are correspondingly disappointing. It was also announced this week that China imported significantly less soybean in April than had been expected. Overall, imports from the Middle Kingdom have been declining for some time. From the Chinese pig herd, it has been heard that production volumes have returned to pre-ASF levels. US soybean seeding is progressing well. The weather conditions for this are still friendly. The high rate of sowing is also putting pressure on prices on the CBoT. The harvest in Argentina is still going on.The grain exchange in Buenos Aires recently warned that the quantities will probably be even lower than previously assumed. In order to fully utilize the production capacities in the production of soybean meal, the processors in Argentina have already bought the first quantities in Brazil. The traders have already positioned themselves for today's WASDE, which will be published at 6 p.m. The majority of market participants expect higher ending stocks in the USA. There will also be initial forecasts for the 2023/24 US crop.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The oilseed markets are still tending to be under pressure. The downtrend continues, although there are periods of corrective and rising prices. The high harvest in Brazil, the rapid sowing speed in the USA, falling demand from China, and more acreage for rapeseed in Europe and Canada are putting pressure on prices. The ongoing negotiations on the grain corridor across the Black Sea could bring about an about-face. The end of the current agreement is imminent.
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