The signs shone deep red yesterday on the rapeseed market. The end of the front month in particular had to cope with a double-digit correction. But even the busiest November recorded a loss of EUR 5.50/ton to EUR 470.00/ton. Rapeseed prices have been extremely volatile in recent months. After the prices on the stock exchange had cracked the 1,000 euro mark at the beginning of 2022, things went south some time later. Above all, concerns about possible supply bottlenecks supported the strong price increases. In the last few weeks, prices have continued to fall with minor interruptions, so that at the end of June prices were below the long-term median of 43.35 (EUR/Dt.). Meanwhile, the first harvest results from Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt are being published. Here the range extends from 1.0 to 4.0 tons per hectare and is therefore not very heterogeneous. However, precise information on the oil content is not yet available. In the Rheingraben region, the rapeseed stocks were taken from the field at around 4.0 tons per hectare. Oil grades were described as solid by market participants. In Canada, canola prices couldn't escape the bearish cues and also declined.Additional pressure was also triggered by weaker vegetable oil prices. Weak export figures for palm oil caused prices to fall in Malaysia. Although around 10% more has been exported to date, it has fallen short of the expectations of market experts. They were expecting an increase of 20%. Shortly before the weekend, the soy complex also went south. Both the contracts for beans and grist had to give up their profits in the course of trading. In addition to the lack of guidelines on the agricultural markets, the US dollar, which was rising again, also put pressure on oilseed. According to the USDA, around 53% are affected by the drought, which is a further increase compared to the previous week (50%). In June, however, the value was still over 60%, so that market participants reacted rather calmly to the report. The latest export news failed to stem the losses yesterday. This was confirmed in a deal with a volume of 256,000 tons. The buyer was not disclosed
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
In Europe, the first harvest results were heterogeneous. However, there is often a lack of precise information, especially about the oil content, so that although a certain harvest pressure can be felt, this is only priced in to a limited extent. In the United States, the weather is the main source of uncertainty. Around half of the soy stocks are suffering from drought. If the new heatwave spreads, it could point prices back in the right direction. In addition, Russia's attacks on Ukraine continue to create tensions. It remains volatile.
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