Rapeseed went south over the course of the week. At the closing bell last Friday, the price for the leading November date was 473.75 euros/t on the display board of the Paris Stock Exchange; yesterday, Thursday, it was 461.00 euros/t. Furthermore, the rapeseed market is mainly driven by headlines. Following last week's gains following the end of the grain deal and attacks on Ukrainian port cities, this week's focus was on ongoing harvest work and good growing conditions on the Canadian prairies. The harvest as a whole has faltered due to the many rain showers in recent weeks. Wherever rapeseed still has to be threshed, producers willy-nilly have to accept the drying costs, because moisture levels are seldom below 9 percent. Overall, the oil content is correct and the yields per hectare expected in advance are also correct in many regions. However, the wet weather has also brought concerns about quality, with farmers in many places fearing that the rapeseed pods could burst. Harvesting should therefore be carried out at full speed in the coming days, as more friendly weather conditions are forecast overall.At the end of July, the EU Commission revised its forecast for the European rapeseed harvest downwards and now expects a harvest volume of 19.43 million tons, slightly less than in the previous year from Europe's fields. Sales on the spot markets are manageable. On the one hand, many farmers have concluded preliminary contracts with the buyers, on the other hand, oil mills are currently well supplied and are asking for correspondingly smaller quantities of rapeseed. Rapeseed meal prices have recently increased again. Good and lively demand for prompt delivery dates is reported. On a weekly basis, the soybean complex was also under price pressure. Earlier in the week, the USDA raised condition ratings for US crops by 2 percent. 54 percent of the stocks are classified as “good” or “very good”. Heavy rainfall has significantly improved the quality and growth of soybean stocks. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the August WASDE, which will be published by the USDA at 6:00 p.m. CET today, many market participants expect the US harvest forecast to be reduced. This expectation gave the soybeans backing again and again on individual days.Friendly news and support comes from the US export front. For example, in the week ended August 3, 406,600 tons of soybeans were sold. The main customer is China, twice this week the USDA was able to announce high retail sales to the Middle Kingdom. A total of 1.1 million tons of soybeans have already been effectively sold in the marketing year that is now starting. The Brazilian agricultural authority Conab yesterday increased its forecast for the local harvest to 154.6 million tons and is still below the USDA's last estimate of 156 million tons for the soybean harvest in Brazil in July. In a preliminary estimate, the grain exchange in Rosario has forecast 48 million tons for the next harvest. The last harvest produced only 20 million tons due to the drought.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
While the rapeseed harvest in Europe – with some interruptions – is approaching the target grades, the soybeans and canola in North America are currently in the most important growth phase. Most recently, soybean stocks have benefited significantly from heavy rainfall and good weather conditions in the Midwest. Canola in Canada also finds good growing conditions. Overall, the pressure on oilseed prices is likely to continue, even if China starts making more purchases on the international stage again.
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