Ölsaaten News, 08/25/2023

On a weekly basis, rapeseed is somewhat weaker on the Euronext/Matif. The front month of November was listed yesterday with a closing price of 471.50 euros/t and thus 3 euros lower than on Friday of last week. With the start of today's trading day, there are slightly positive tendencies until early noon. The daily high in November was already 475.00 euros/t. Canola in Winnipeg was also up this week. Above all, the dry weather forecast in the Canadian prairies, but also positive indications from the soybean market, have caused Canola to pick up. As on the grain markets, the current geopolitical developments also play a role in the price development of rapeseed. Reports emerged on Wednesday that Russia had attacked a Ukrainian port on the Danube. The transport capacities for this port are therefore around 25 percent lower than usual. According to the government, 13,000 tons of grain were destroyed. The German Farmers' Association presented its harvest balance in the middle of the week and estimates the local rapeseed production at just over 4 million tons and thus slightly less than in the previous year - despite the increase in area. The German Raiffeisen Association forecast a harvest of 4.07 million tons last week.The EU forecast service MARS lowered its expectations for average yields per hectare in Europe compared to the July forecast to 3.19 t/ha. This means that less yield is harvested than in the previous year, but the long-term average of 3.1 t/ha is slightly exceeded. Good harvests are still expected in France, Poland and Hungary, but more southern cultivation countries have recorded significant losses due to the heat development. Soybeans appreciated in value this week. Soybean meal is also more expensive than a week ago. In particular, the weather forecast in the Midwest and the Corn Belt continues to drive soybean prices. High temperatures have been reported for the weekend and the coming week, and there is no precipitation. The Pro Farmer industry association is currently on a field tour. The previous interim results show different forecasts. For example, slightly above-average yields per hectare are expected for Iowa, but they are likely to be well below average in Ohio. Support also comes from the export market. The USDA was able to publish isolated flash sales and the weekly statistics on export sales exceeded analysts' expectations.China in particular has bought more US beans again. What remains is the price competition from South America. However, there seem to be increasing problems with loading in Brazilian ports, which is why buyers are again increasingly looking for beans and corn from the USA. The increased soybean meal prices in Chicago are also reflected in the spot market prices in Germany. While soybean meal cost the equivalent of 396.52 euros/t on the CBoT in the October contract last Friday, it was 422.63 euros/t at the closing bell yesterday.