20.
10.23
Different developments in oilseeds

Ölsaaten News, 10/20/2023

Bullish
  • Canadian harvest at target levels
  • IGC reduces soybean forecast
  • declining harvest expectations in Canada and Europe
  • global rapeseed deficit
Bearish
  • High harvest volumes Ukraine
  • Declining demand for rapeseed meal due to lower livestock numbers in Europe
  • Oil mills well supplied until the end of the year
Spot markets at a glance Euro/ton
Rapeseed Sep 21 Oct. 5 Oct. 5 Oct. 12 Oct 19 +/-
Hamburg 451.00 462.00 446.00 426.00 442.00 16.00
Straubingen nn nn nn nn nn nn
Soybean meal
Hamburg 464.00 467.00 450.00 468.00 490.00 22.00
Magdeburg 474.00 477.00 460.00 478.00 500.00 22.00
Mainz 492.00 492.00 477.00 482.00 482.00 0.00
Rapeseed meal
Hamburg 285.00 285.00 273.00 272.00 293.00 21.00
Hamm 283.00 283.00 262.00 264.00 287.00 23.00
Lower Rhine 279.00 277.00 266.00 258.00 280.00 22.00

The oilseed markets were also moving this week. While rapeseed is trending somewhat weaker overall compared to Friday last week despite individual days with strong price increases so far, soybean prices have increased significantly. Soybean meal in particular rose sharply yesterday, Thursday. Trade in rapeseed remains manageable on the local cash markets. The oil mills are mostly well supplied until the beginning of next year. There are requests for deliveries in the new year here and there. The prices at the wholesale level were somewhat firmer this week. Demand for rapeseed meal, which was still viewed as dynamic at the beginning of the month, has declined. However, farmers and feed mixers have recently reduced their demand again. Prices tend to vary depending on the region, but are usually lower. The USDA's latest forecast from last week, according to which global rapeseed production is still expected to be below the previous year's level, had a positive effect on rapeseed prices. However, consumption is likely to continue to develop dynamically, meaning that a production deficit is expected and global final stocks are likely to fall noticeably.Soybeans rose sharply this week, but after significant gains yesterday, they are falling slightly in the pre-market today. The US harvest is still in full swing, which is fundamentally weighing on price developments. However, positive export figures for soybeans and soybean meal this week are providing relief for the market. The price level for crude oil is also fundamentally a tailwind. To the surprise of market participants, the processing figures for September in the USA were at a record level for a September and once again significantly better than in August. However, the news of higher production prospects in Brazil and Argentina could not slow down price developments. On Thursday, the International Grain Council lowered its forecast for the global soybean harvest by 2.5 million tons to 393 million tons.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

While soy and especially soy meal made strong gains this week, rapeseed still lacks a very clear direction. Torn between lower global supplies and overall high price levels, oilseeds remain volatile. Even against this background, cash market activity is likely to remain quiet in the near future.

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29.
09.24
08:44

Oilseeds: EU-KOM cuts rapeseed harvest 2024/25 below multi-year average. In its market report at the end of Sep. 2024, the EU Commission assumes a rapeseed harvest of only 17.1 million tons. This compares to 19.7 million tons in the previous year. The decisive factors here are the -7.3 % reduction in acreage and the -6.3 % drop in yields per…

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17.
09.24
10:38

Oilseed market: high soybean supply, rapeseed and sunflower in short supply, palm oil limited. The 2024/25 oilseed market is positioned very differently depending on the raw material. Record harvests are expected for the dominant soybean sector until the first half of 2025. If consumption increases less strongly, stocks will rise and put pressure…

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13.
09.24
11:33

The USDA's Sep. 2024 estimate for oilseed supply in 2024/25 confirmed an above-average global supply situation overall, despite a slight downward revision compared to the previous month. Total production increases by +4.5% to 687 million tons. Consumption is estimated at 667.5 million tons. Inventories increase by +15.3 % compared to the previous…

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