Ölsaaten News, 11/10/2023

For rapeseed, things went south on a weekly basis. The trading session ended yesterday at a closing price of 432.50 euros/t for the front month of February 2024 and with the start of trading this Friday there are also significant setbacks for rapeseed. Trading on the cash markets remains manageable. Oil mills are well supplied and if there is a short-term need, cheap import quantities from Ukraine and the Baltics are available on the market. In yesterday's WASDE from the USDA, the ministry revised its forecast for Europe upwards by 100,000 tonnes, thus continuing to significantly exceed the EU Commission's estimate. Overall, global production was adjusted slightly upwards compared to the last estimate in October; although global ending stocks are still expected to be significantly lower than last year, they have also increased slightly compared to the last forecast. The soy market was also weaker for the most part this week. Good export demand and several flash sales, some of which were very large, were able to stimulate the market again and again. But the revised forecasts in yesterday's WASDE report sent soybeans and recently solid soybean meal south on a weekly basis.In pre-market trading until early Friday afternoon, the contracts on the CBoT also tended to be weaker again. Good export figures limited the losses. The weekly export sales and shipments appear to be friendly and the rumors of a Chinese purchasing wave remain persistent on the market and have been confirmed by the various flash sales in the eyes of many market participants. In the WASDE, the USDA increased the global production forecast from 399.5 million tons to 400.42 million tons. However, slightly lower starting stocks and higher processing numbers mean that global ending stocks have fallen slightly compared to the October estimate. However, ending stocks and production forecasts are still well above the values of the two previous years. For South America, the USDA made no changes to the production forecast in yesterday's WASDE. However, with the better harvest forecasts, especially for the USA, soybean prices fell significantly. The weather conditions in Brazil continue to be difficult, which has significantly pushed back soybean sowing.At the same time, the export forecasts from the Anec association remain positive and are above the volumes of the same months last year for both soy and corn.