17.
11.23
Rapeseed and soy with increasing trends

Ölsaaten News, 11/17/2023

Bullish
  • lower rapeseed production than in the previous year
  • lower acreage in Germany and Ukraine
  • Ukrainian war
  • difficult growing conditions in South America
  • good export demand
Bearish
  • Mills well supplied until the end of the year
  • Crude oil prices under pressure
  • Record harvest expected in Brazil despite difficult growing conditions
  • higher global soy production expected
Spot markets at a glance Euro/ton
Rapeseed Oct. 12 Oct 26 Oct 26 Nov 2nd Nov 9 +/-
Hamburg 426.00 442.00 432.00 422.00 429.00 7.00
Straubingen nn nn nn 423.00 438.00 15.00
Soybean meal
Hamburg 468.00 490.00 490.00 537.00 537.00 0.00
Magdeburg 478.00 500.00 500.00 547.00 547.00 0.00
Mainz 482.00 482.00 482.00 544.00 552.00 8.00
Rapeseed meal
Hamburg 272.00 293.00 288.00 284.00 304.00 20.00
Hamm 264.00 287.00 285.00 286.00 305.00 19.00
Lower Rhine 258.00 280.00 277.00 279.00 298.00 19.00

The Union's forecast for the promotion of protein and oil crops was particularly supportive. This assumes a smaller acreage for the coming German harvest. Compared to the previous year, the area is expected to be around 76,000 hectares smaller. A cultivated area of 1.09 to around 1.13 million hectares is forecast. The current stocks have benefited from the rain showers and have started the season well. A smaller area under rapeseed cultivation is also expected in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, until November 14th. an area of around 1.15 million hectares was cultivated with winter rapeseed. According to the ministry, the cultivated area this year will be around 12.7 percent less than last year. On the cash markets, prices at the wholesale level are also slightly firmer compared to the previous week. Trade remains manageable. Oil mills are mostly well supplied until the end of the year, but are demanding quantities for the first quarter. Even if Europe imports less rapeseed than in the previous year, overall market supply is sufficient. Trade is carried out in the event of short-term needs, and import quantities from Europe and Ukraine are also available in this country.Soybeans gained noticeably, especially in the first days of the new trading week. Soybean meal also increased significantly. High processing figures in the USA, which reached a new all-time high in October, supported the market as did friendly export demand. Last week, more soybeans were ordered in the USA than ever before this season. The USDA recorded sales of 3.91 million tons, of which China alone ordered 2.6 million tons. At a meeting in San Francisco, Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping agreed on measures to reduce tensions between the two countries. This should also include trade in agricultural goods. The growing situation in Argentina and Brazil remains difficult and has further boosted the market this week. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday reduced its forecast for Argentine soybean cultivation area by 200,000 hectares to 17.3 million hectares. According to the stock exchange, around 18 percent of the planned space is currently in order. As of today's trading day, prices for soybeans are weaker. In particular, yesterday's sharp decline in crude oil prices is currently putting a strain on the market.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The signs on the oilseed markets continue to be positive despite the price setbacks yesterday and today. Export demand for soybeans is decent. Argentine quantities of soybean meal are currently lacking and are driving up meal prices. In addition, the area under rapeseed cultivation in Germany and Ukraine is likely to be smaller, which is likely to have an impact on future price developments.

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