Rapeseed also appeared firmer last week. The closing price on Friday yesterday was 438.00 euros/t in the front month, on Friday of the previous week it was 435.00 euros/t and thus 3 euros less on the Euronext/Matif display board in Paris. Overall, rapeseed prices were affected by the soybean market, which was particularly volatile this week, but has declined overall. Looking at the November trend so far, rapeseed prices appear to be firmer overall. The continued fixed prices for rapeseed meal and the manageable quantities available at least for short-term deliveries had a supportive effect on rapeseed. The forecast of a slight decline in cultivated area in Germany for the coming harvest also provided fundamental support, as did rising prices for vegetable oils in the middle of the week. Effective trading in Germany has hardly changed this week. Farmers are holding back free rapeseed quantities, mills are mostly well supplied until the end of the year, but discussions are taking place for deliveries in the first quarter of 2024. Canada's canola exports are below last year's level. Europe's imports are also lower than a year ago.The skin supplier is Ukraine, which accounts for around 2/3 of the import volumes. While soybeans were pushed up significantly at the beginning of last week by the drought in Brazil, the rain showers from Wednesday onwards put the beans under significant pressure. Further heavy rainfall is also forecast for the large growing areas in Brazil in the coming days. Despite the backward sowing and the problematic weather conditions of the last few weeks, the vast majority of analysts are expecting a record harvest in the South American country, but more and more experts are reducing their harvest forecasts. Oil World analysts cut their estimate this week, warning that the crop could be 10 to 20 million tons smaller than many analysts are currently expecting because of the problems so far. The high forecast for the global soybean harvest for the current season has a negative impact overall. In the International Grains Council's latest estimate from November 19, the body assumes a record harvest of 395 million tonnes. Although consumption is also increasing compared to the previous year, according to the Grain Council, global final stocks are likely to increase by around 8 million tons and reach 62 million tons.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The focus in the soy market will remain on South America in the next few weeks. Rain showers are currently bringing relief, but the most important development period for Brazilian soybean plants will be January. Whether and how quickly the farmers will make progress with sowing remains the big question mark in the market. Export demand in the USA is generally very good and provides support.
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