Agricultural markets at the turn of the year: rape market 2015

Agricultural markets at the turn of the year:

Remain the rapeseed prices 2015 further so unusual?

Rape rates have proven despite the adverse market environment robust and resistant in the last months of the year 2014 as amazing. The 30% fall in the crude oil price could have as little rape prices, like constant competitive price pressure of the low palm oil. 

However, the canola price has experienced support by also unusually stable soy prices. The dependence on imports and the few permitted varieties due to the EU's GMO regulations more expensive rapeseed imports with weak purchasing power of the euro, so that the available domestic goods remains popular. Last but not least also the little favorable Outlook on the upcoming rape market 2015 are likely to play a supporting role.

In contrast to previous record harvest in 2013/14, which has been created by Canada, the ongoing campaign of 2014/15 is down although slightly slower, but always still above average. The world's high harvest result in 2014 is to owe the top crop in the EU 28. In addition to low intermediate, high hectare were crucial in this country. Early onset of vegetation and a cheap off maturity phase provided the best conditions for the good EU income.

A strong increase in global demand with unusually high proportions of India started up but more than offer growth. However, for now it remains at a relatively high inventory for the end of the marketing year 2014/15.  

For the upcoming crop of 2015 is a significant slump in worldwide 67 million tonnes or. 7% to the previous year forecast. The EU with a focus on Germany and the United Kingdom has substantial share of it. The acreage be classified between - 4.5% and -5% lower. Neonicotinoid use ban has caused high pest pitting. Other stocks has lush growth in the winter, so that in case of strong frosts without sufficient snow cover high Dewinterizing damage must be expected.

Canada as the second largest canola growers has become again after the bad experience with unusually low prices in the last year on average acreage. How the seed will turn out next spring for the typical Canadian summer rape, remains open for the time being.

The future of forward rates for rape on the Paris stock exchange show 2015 far in the autumn into a relatively stable development.  This is unusual given the competing low palm oil prices and expected declining soybean prices. However, the recent price movements fall still relatively modest.

The price crucial supply demand conditions are not yet complete, so that the picture can change significantly. A first test is expected in March 2015, when the remaining U.S. crop encounters the new South American crop.  A second test for the price development in the course of the year 2015 will be the US sowing areas in may 2015 and the subsequent development of the weather.

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