Agricultural markets at the turn of the year: soybean market
Bumper crop of 2014/15 - good average results by 2015/16 - yielding courses
The record result of 2014/15 is the third high harvest in the soya market in order. The continuously increasing production was first of all necessary to supplement the supply deficit from previous years again. In recent years, the inventories are filled in but again that may be assumed by a well secured supply situation at world level.
In particular the U.S. soy crop with 107.7 million tonnes (previous year 91.5 million tonnes) has contributed to a significant increase in range with a large increase in the soybean area and high Flächenerträgen. However, there have been problems of transition . The extremely low US closing stock is not sufficient to bridge the time until the new harvest late 2014. This came on the road and the rail transport problems. In anticipation of a wide range of soy prices fell first to in the Sept. 14 in, then in the face of the increasingly acute supply shortages at summer levels to increase again. The driving force came from the soy meal sector, less from the soybean sector.
The 2015 pending in the spring months of South American crops promise to higher überdurchschnittlich seed status and current weather. Brazil expects between 92 to 96 Mio.t (previous year 86.5 million tonnes) and Argentina is estimated approximately 55 million tonnes (last year 54 million tonnes).
The increasing offer can increasing demand not be obtained. China's import purchases with an increase of 4 to 5 million tonnes are only half as high as in the previous year with an increase of rd. 10 million tonnes. Overall, China denies rd. 2/3 of the global trade of soy. The result is expected for 2014/15 with a rapid inventory build-up at record levels.
Yet stable prices will have to give in the spring months of 2015 under the competitive pressure of the North and South American deals . The forward rates show clearly falling prices at least for the soy meal complex.
For the subsequent marketing year starting 2015/16 September , soy crops are appreciated only slightly lower. The key reason is the Cheap soy / corn price ratio by more than 2.5 to 1, which gives a significant competitive advantage over corn soybeans. The estimators assume only an average yield increase, so that the predicted harvest slightly behind the previous year results remain.
The U.S. soybean will be seeded from mid-April to end of may 2015 and harvested from mid Sept. 15. For South America , the new sowing begins in the Oct. 15 and the harvest takes place in 2016 in the spring months. Given the high vulnerability to the effects of the weather, forecasts in the soybean sector with greater uncertainties are tainted. For the coming year, however, is a more abundant inventories to compensate for available.
An exceptionally good supply situation causes the stock market to decline forward rates in the soy complex until well into the year 2015/16 into. However, the price level remains relatively high. Sufficiently large risk premium in prices to the varying results of the harvest and the uncertain market conditions due to truck drivers and dock workers strike and if necessary. Sales reluctance to compensate the farmer. The soybean market remains good for surprises.
