To expect low rapeseed harvest for 2015/16 on world and EU level
The global rape harvesting with approximately 68 million tonnes will be significantly below the previous line by almost 72 million tonnes in 2015/16. The decline takes place mainly in the two largest cultivation areas in EU-28 and in Canada, who together earn more than half of the world production of canola. In the third-largest production area in China harvesting should be slightly larger. All three countries together operate more than 70 per cent of global rapeseed cultivation.
Canola cultivation in the EU was restricted in the autumn of 2014 area and had bad starting conditions. Neonicotinoid use ban has resulted in considerable damage. However, the expectation of average income compared to the record results of the previous year is crucial for the lower estimated crop of 2015. The canola cultivation in the EU focuses on Germany, France, Poland and the United Kingdom. The EU remains a net importer of rape of a magnitude between 2.5 to 3 million tonnes.
In Canada the rape cultivation has can not reconnect after the record year 2013 with over 18 million tonnes to the old results. For 2015 is expected to approximately 14 million tonnes. Of them, about 7.5 million tonnes are exported. Canada is far and away the biggest canola exporter on the world market. However, Canadian exports are subject to restrictions as a result of the GMO issue.
China's rapeseed production is constant for a decade. The rising demand for vegetable oils is covered to a great extent by soybean imports. Chinese rapeseed cultivation is limited to a few appropriate cultivation, which is no longer inflated. In addition to rape seed, even canola oil is imported. Deliveries come partly from Canada, but for the most part from Australia.
India rapeseed cultivation is exclusively self-catering with a volume of 7 to 8 million tonnes. In addition, at least the same amount of oil equivalents must be imported.
Australia's canola crops move for years in the range of 3.5 to under 4 million tonnes. About half of it is exported. Because it often still is GMO free varieties, Australia is a premier destination for imports into the EU with strict requirements relating to the GMO-free.
The rapeseed consumption by 2015/16 will be covered not only from the current crop can likely to. Inventory inventories are be reduced significantly this year.
The canola market is a part of the oilseed market with a share of 13 to 15%. The market leader with a share of 30% and more are palm oil and soybean oil. It follows that canola prices vary not only according to the conditions of scarcity on the domestic market, but are included in the other competition of oilseeds and oil crops.
Yet there is a certain scope for a momentum of its own in the price formation due to site differences. The low-cost palm oil is produced to 85% in Indonesia and Malaysia. Soybean oil has its production centers in North and South America. The European rapeseed market can develop a limited autonomy to a certain extent. The EU rapeseed price is with influenced by fluctuating exchange rate conditions as a result of the dependence on imports.
In spite of the tight supply situation in the global and EU rapeseed market the price margins are above limited. The high soy crops press on the soybean oil prices. The palm oil prices are low. Canola prices are capped up.
