Coceral estimates EU rapeseed harvest at 17 million t. - Reduced acreage and low yields In its most recent Dec. issue, the umbrella organization of the European grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) has reduced the EU rapeseed harvest to approx. 17 million t estimated. The result is well below the multi-year average of 20 to 21 million t and far from the record result of 24 million t in 2014. Decisive factors, apart from below-average yields, are the decline in acreage from almost 7 to 5.6 million hectares. The background is dryness-related sowing problems, the insufficient availability of special pesticides and the low prices of recent years. Particularly in the main growing areas of France and Germany , rapeseed areas have fallen by 30% each. In Romania , the acreage was halved. While 8.5% less rapeseed areas were ordered in the Czech Republic, they remained largely unchanged in Poland. Rape cultivation in Great Britain also declined with a reduction of 9.3%.The formerly common EU consumption quantities of approx. Despite rising imports, 25 million tonnes will fall to an estimated 23.4 million tonnes in the current year. The supplier countries are primarily Ukraine and Australia , but their export potential has declined significantly. Canada could also be considered as an exporting country, but there are problems with the risk of mixing GMO varieties that are predominantly cultivated in Canada. Separate collection, storage and transport is complex. Rapeseed oil competes as a raw material for the production of biodiesel with palm oil. Despite the customs clearance of palm oil imports, the imported raw material still remains competitive. Soybean oil is also considered as a competing commodity, even if the quantities used remain low. The recent development of rising palm oil prices in Indonesia alleviates the competition problem a little so that EU rape prices have more room to move upwards.On the stock exchanges, the brand of 400 € / t is targeted, but a clear breakthrough is not yet sustainable. Nevertheless, it has to be said that rapeseed prices have clearly increased since the harvest season of 2019. For the further development of this marketing year, there are identifiable shortages at the end of the processing period in May and June 2020 . The shortage could once again lead to a price increase, but remains speculative. The renewed restraint of the rapeseed acreage in 2019 in the main growing areas suggests that the new harvest in 2020 could also remain below the multi-year average, meaning that the supply situation will remain short of supply.
