Different estimates for Canada's canola stocks

Different opinions on the Canadian canola stocks end of 2015

The rape cultivation in Canada was by 2015 under changing circumstances. For sowing in the spring drought prevailed in the major growing regions of Alberta and Saschkatchewan. Delayed seeding and poorly developed crops promised no good harvest.

In the aftermath , the assessments of plant resources were continuously better. In a first estimate of the crop in the Sept. 15, a result of about 14.5 million t was estimated. Subsequent supplementary estimates increased this forecast. To the surprise of many market participants, the Canadian Statistics Office published a rapeseed harvest estimate of more than 17 million tonnes in the Dec.. This achieved so far second largest harvest since 2013 with 18.5 million tonnes.

With a slightly lower harvested area increased average yield of approximately 21 dt / ha compared to 19.9 dt / ha should have contributed to this harvest is the result in the previous year. In 2013, the biggest Flächenertrag was achieved by just 23 dt / ha.

Canadian Statistics Bureau released population estimates showed a magnitude of 12.12 million tonnes or about a half million t less than at the same time to the 2015 31.Dez..

Market experts doubt this result. Given the higher estimated harvest, but normal processing levels and moderate export sales with a focus on China and Japan higher stocks are suspected. China absorbs almost half of the Canadian export volumes and Japan has a 25% export share.  

Exchange participants may not assume, that higher stocks in the current price environment lead to increased price pressure, could but be suitable to interfere with a future rally.

The rare courses in Paris have fallen to 360 EUR / t and Winnipeg to 305 EUR / t. The fallen rape rates in Paris are in close connection with the higher rates of the euro in the order of $1.12 to see € each.  Additional pressure comes from the soy sector. The South American crops are estimated now tend to back higher.

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