EL Nino can affect massive palm oil production

EL Niño in Indonesia and Malaysia

Palm oil has about a 35% production share of the vegetable oils. Soybean oil is 2 with 28%. Canola oil has a share of rd 15%. All other vegetable oils are far.

Due to its low price of palm oil is leader in the market of the vegetable Ölse direct gefogt of the soybean oil. Rapeseed oil prices have largely fit the two market leaders. Nevertheless, differences due to the region remain different distribution.

Palm oil is 85% in Malaysia and Indonesia produced. The production is efficient only under tropical conditions with precipitation conditions of 1,800 to 2,400 mm precipitation per year. For the once cultivated plant provides an annual oil income is between 4,500 and 6,000 kg for 30 years. For comparison, it creates the rape plant under favorable European conditions on about 2,000 kg.

For the year 2015/16 increases the probability of an El Nino weather phaenomens up to 90%. The Southeast Asian area with Malaysia and Indonesia with longer continuous rainfall deficiencyis particularly affected. Should the weather event is actually arrive in average intensity, is to be expected with a significant degradation of the palm oil crops. However, specific predictions to the beginning of time, the duration and the strength of the weather anomaly only to a lesser extent, are possible.

The greatest damage could occur, when the dry season in the month of Oct. would occur. During this period, the annual maximum yield is achieved. Also the months before and after are seasonal high profitable periods.

The impact of a reduced harvest impact immediately on prices , because the monthly inventories are still higher than the crops. However, delivers a destocking always a signal for rising prices. According to recent estimates by market experts is expected that current prices now $605 per t to almost $700 depending on the t can go.

In recent years fallen palm oil prices are again thanks to lower crude oil prices .  A export control has curbed the exports.  In this way, the biodiesel production in its own country should be favoured.

Due to the significant market share of palm oil, repercussions on the other markets will be expected. This is especially concerned European rapeseed oil pointed out fruit. To what extent the high offer of soybean oil, however, can hold, is not yet appreciate.

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