The EU oilseed market: after years of strong growth in the future hardly change
The production of oilseeds (rapeseed, sunflower and soya) in the EU took a strong upswing in the past 10 years. The main reason is the rising demand for oilseed rape for the production of bio-diesel to meet the at mixture ratio. The low amount of sunflowers in the amount of 8 million tonnes and soybean (1.2 million tonnes) is confined to suitable locations mostly in the South and South-East of the EU.
Rape as a lead product showed strong price fluctuations from 22 €/ dt in the EU in 2005 to 47 €/ dt in the years 2010 to 2012 rape however, considered soy and palm oil price customizer in global oilseed market with the two leaders.
Consists in the current business year 2015/16 around the world and in the EU although one unusually scarce supply situation in the canola sector, but the far superior offer from the soy canola prices capping the 40 €/ dt brand. Current high palm oil stocks also help.
For the coming decade the Commission assumes an unchanged oilseed production at the level of 30 million tonnes in total. The rape production remains at a level of 21.6 million; in return the acreage, but offset by the increases in income.
The future decline of the raw material required for biodieselis being replaced increasingly by recycling of used oils and fats is decisive. The increase of protein fodder needs of the limited growing herds will be covered mainly by Soja(schrot)einfuhren.
Starting from a low level you expect a greening supported production increase in protein sources (e.g. soya) from current 1.9 future 2.4 million tonnes.
Measured on the rape rates by 2020 a subdued level of prices to the tune of 35 €/ dt is assumed. Background is the increased production of soy and their inventories built up. With smears, this applies also for the production of palm oil. The restrained lately China imports also contribute to a moderate price development.
In the subsequent phase by 2025 , again stronger consumption as growth rates should help drive prices direction under 40 €/ dt. This is average price forecasts. In the single year specific events will help, that there will be again considerable fluctuations, which are not currently foreseeable.
