EU Commission estimated canola crop 2016 on previous year's level
The EU rapeseed harvest of 2016 to differ despite increased acreage due to lower earnings expectations only marginally from the previous harvest. It remains well behind the record year back 2013/14 with 24 million tons to 3 million tons.
The area estimate is still on shaky legs, because in United Kingdom about 6% less has been seeded and it is still unclear in Poland the Dewinterizing damage will be how big.
In France and Germany with half de EU crop, plant stands are judged good to above average. However, the yield-forming stage is decisive for the result of the harvest in the period from April to June.
The EU is dependent on rapeseed imports between 2.5 to 3 million tonnes . Imports come mainly from the Ukraine and Australia. Small amounts of approved varieties come from Canada. For 2016, it is expected that the Ukraine in many areas will fall, because the seed as a result of drought has failed in the autumn 2015. How Australia can help out, remains open for the time being.
Given the low prices of crude oil demand is likely to be 2016/17 lower after rapeseed oil as a basis for the production of biodiesel. Therefore, the EU Commission for 2016/17 estimates a consumption reduced by 10%.
Despite the scarce supply of rape, rape rates only within a moderate price will move, because the competition will not allow a higher price level in particular by soybean oil. However, it is to pay attention to the rising palm oil prices. The availability of this cheapest vegetable oil is not particularly large in this year due to the EL Nino weather drought. The aftermath will stop until the summer and reduce the inventories of the palm oil.
The recent development of the crude oil prices toward $40 per barrel reduce competitive pressure on bio-fuels. However, it is difficult to predict how the prices will evolve in the face of winter coming at the end. Typically, the racing season increases fuel consumption in the summer. Demand from the industrial sector given the low level of the price could lead to an increased demand. In addition ensure fluctuating exchange rates and political instability for uncertainty.
