EU rapeseed supply 2016/17 still scarce as the upcoming EU rapeseed crop is 2016 in the expiring year different judges. The most recent estimates of the American foreign estimates the harvest at 22.4 million tonnes. Earlier estimates of the European Commission, the International Grains Council and other institutions are, which are mostly at 21.3 million tonnes.
The US estimate is based with high results in the Baltic areas, Romania and other locations. However, losses in the UK and Poland be admitted.
The consumption of rapeseed in the EU was so far about 25 million t. But in the expiring year has not succeeded, to cover the missing demand from imports. The import decline is estimated at 18% or 2.3 million tonnes.
Essential background is that the previous suppliers such as the Ukraine, Belarus and Australia due to its own growing bottlenecks can deliver just a few volumes. In the Ukraine, drought has prevented at least one third of the sowing. A few stocks have no high yields and harvests expected. Australia's harvest to be slightly higher with 3.3 million tons, but still not sufficiently precise to assess. The Canadian RAPS is mostly not allowed for reasons of GMOs in the EU.
The US estimate assumes a processing volume of 24 million tonnes. This surplus stocks are must be reduced up to extreme. It is no longer of a low seen for 13 years.
The rape have been rising significantly in recent times. Key driving factor is the rising crude oil price, which has recovered the palm oil prices upwards. Upwards for the market and price developments, the exceptionally well-stocked soy market sets the framework.
