Falling prices of soy can still waiting

Waiting for low soybean meal prices - a hard test of patience

The high expectations for a bumper U.S. crop on soybeans were months closely linked with the hope of significantly declining soy meal courses. Actually there was a significant decline from 420 to €330 je je from April until July measured on the Hamburg stock exchange listing. The approaching cheap running U.S. soy crop confirmed this course development.

After a short interim period of supply-related price uncertainties, the month of September again delivered a strong decline, which was more pronounced in the United States as the hesitant hamburger prices.

The U.S. soybean crop was delayed however due to the cool weather, which brought a delay of the maturity of beans with. In connection with the extremely low stocks of overlay from ancient harvest , considerable difficulties arose with soybean meal. The new beans were indeed in the silos, soybean meal but stood on the consumption sites not sufficiently available.

Scarcity in land transport with trucks and railway increased the urgent needs. High price premiums for immediately tangible goods were requested and paid. Still, a sudden cold snap with high snowfall came in the last 2 weeks.

On the waterways of the soybean export work much smoother so that the tangible domestic goods decreased high export volumes.

The result was a rise in price of soybean meal by average 340 to €380 per t Hamburg listing. A weaker euro exchange rate also contributed to the rise in prices.

How's next? The U.S. soy crop with record results completed. The silos in the countryside are well-stocked. The processing is in full swing. But the pent-up demand for a satisfactory storage storage is not yet fully met. The supply situation has eased significantly. The logistical problems abate.

There are signs of a decline in the soy meal courses. Is expected until after Christmas to significantly decreasing prices. Then press Additionally the approaching South American soybean crop with high expectations in the market. Generally speaking the current Soybean/corn price ratio to strengthen cultivation of beans over corn.

Negative experiences in recent years, however, warn against too much euphoria. In addition to the always possible weather influences on the result of the crop in South America, one should keep more confounding factors in mind. Occur with great regularity truckdrivers and dock workers at the height of the evacuation beg. until end of Feb. strike. This means the goods in the areas of consumption again only with considerable delay at the disposal. In addition can be expected with currency changes . A possible further weakening of the euro becomes more expensive to import. Last but not least, the question remains open after the actual purchasing behavior of Chinese . The increase in imports should remain in the average (+ 4 to 5 million tonnes) on a total 75 million tonnes.

Despite the General line of above-average powered soy market and subdued prices, temporary surprises do not remain. Hedges of part of are a cheap published price situation the right sourcing strategy.