Feb-2022: USDA lower estimates 2021/22 oilseed supply. In its Feb. 22 estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) significantly reduced the 2021/22 oilseed harvest to around 611 million t (previous month: 620 million t). However, consumption will be reduced less sharply to 521 million t. The end stock falls back to 104 million t (previous month 114 million t). Mathematically, the inventories are sufficient for 73 days (previous year: 82 days). The decisive correction compared to the previous month is due to the reduced harvests in the soybean sector at 364 million tons (previous month 372 million tons). Compared to the previous year, the current result is still 3 million less. The cuts are mainly in South America due to the La Niña drought. Brazil lost around -10 million t and Argentina around -3 million t compared to the previous month's estimate. Nevertheless, the South American soybean harvest remains at a record level.On the import side , China is at the forefront with a reduced 97 million tons of soybeans (previous month 100 million tons) or around 60% of world trade. The reduced Chinese pig population has slowed down the previously usual growth in imports of 3 to 5 million tons per year. The EU-27 has been importing 14.8 million t of beans and 16.6 million t of soybean meal for several years. When it comes to soybean exports , Brazil remains in first place with an expected future volume of 91 million tons. In addition, there are almost 17 million tons of soybean meal. In 2021/22, the USA expects a reduction in bean exports of 6 million t to 55.8 million t. US soybean meal exports change only slightly to 13 million tons. The USDA estimates global rapeseed production at 70.6 million t significantly higher than in the previous month, but this is still around 3 million t less than in the previous year.The decisive factor is the Canadian rapeseed harvest, which fell from 19.5 to 12.6 million tons due to the heat. Canadian rapeseed exports fell from 10.5 to 5.3 million tons . In the EU , the rapeseed harvest is still estimated at 17.35 million tons . Due to the global shortage of rapeseed, the EU import requirement is downgraded to just under 4.9 million t . Imports of more than 6 million t would be necessary to cover normal consumption. In the case of other oilseeds, the increasing production of sunflower seeds (+3 million t compared to the previous year) is of regional importance. Production focuses on the Ukraine (7 million t) and Russia (6 million t) with a share of almost 60%. Cultivation in the south-east European EU countries reaches a share of 17%. In the meantime, the consumption of sunflower oil in human nutrition is the number one. Support comes from the relative value of the higher quality oil.Palm Oil: The USDA kept global palm oil production unchanged from the previous month at an estimated 75.5 million tonnes. The producers are Malaysia with 18.7 million tons and Indonesia with 44.5 million tons. Both countries together are responsible for more than 84% of world production. Thailand also contributed to the increase in supply with 3.1 million t (previous year 2.9 million t). Palm oil consumption is increasing little. Closing stocks increase minimally. The rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange failed again with their multiple speculative attempts to fly above the €700 mark. Quotations for the May 22 date are around €786/t. The downward trend for the following months goes back to 611 €/t in November-2022 . Soybean and soybean oil prices continue their upward trend on the Chicago Stock Exchange . The beans are listed at over €515/t and oil at 1.250 €/t. Soybean meal prices are also increasing and reaching the mark of 450 €/t with a downward trend for the following months. Palm oil prices are rising again on the upswing of crude oil prices.
