Expected high soy offer contrary to high prices - risk assessment It sets underlying the recent estimates such as for example of the IGC to the soy market, then is a good average range can be expected. No unusual growth rates are on the demand side. In addition was on the occasion of the USDA production report a larger area of soy in the United States noted. Therefore the question arises for the causes of the strong price increases in the soy complex. It is suggested that here is a speculative an exaggeration of course development. For the year 2016/17 the International Grains Council (IGC) on a crop yield by almost 320 million tonnes of soybeans comes. Are approximately 8 million tonnes more than in the previous year. The Argentine crop failed because of high rainfall to weaker is however taking above-average income in the non-affected areas tend to back slightly higher classified. The Brazilian harvest with 96 million tonnes but remains behind the expectations of 100 million tonnes, is still at the level of the previous year. For the upcoming US harvest increased acreage in autumn 2016 is determined. The expectations were indeed still higher, but the current soy area, after all, represents a growing record which has not been reached in previous years. Under one average income on last year's level had a slightly higher harvest than last year from 106 million tons come out. But the earnings expectations are with high risks attached. Da the fear is first one sustained ad time in July in the US growing regions to the debate. That was the Sojabohen in the disturb the growth phase. Of worse expectations a la is however estimated Niña-related hot weather period with low precipitation in Blüh - and grain formation stage . In the case of lack of water the plant discards partially the flowers or also the pod approaches, so that almost nothing can be harvested. The newly planted shoots bring little revenue. The weather event La Niña will occur with a probability of 60%. While the exact amount of time nor the intensity is predictable. The risk of a very weak U.S. soy crop in conjunction with only average South American harvest results provides enough motivation to push up risk premia in the courses the forward-looking stock market participants. In the next few weeks and months will turn out, to what extent these risk estimates were authorized or not. For the time being the soy courses at a higher level will be exposed fluctuations, depending on how the weather in the United States will present itself. Who qualified from the current price development as purely speculative bubble , will not do justice to the task of a stock exchange. Finally, it is the fundamental concern of a stock exchange possible future supply shortages as early to draw attention and to spread the risk on a broad base of stock market participants . Who disagree is, can the future assessment of supply like to participate in. He can gain money and experience and lose.
