Price prospects on the soy market - experts opinions
Well, a handful of professional American market observers have expressed at the turn to the prospects for the soybean market. In assessing far-matching, they come to the conclusion that soy prices in the year 2016 only slightly from the current low prices are withdraw.
The reasons vary in the emphasis which although slightly, but basically lie on a line.
(1) the high global excess stocks from the previous large crops initially ensure that production losses occurring a sufficient cushion for any can provide for a compensation.
(2) the record harvest in the autumn 2015 in the United States leads with moderate export history to high U.S. inventories at the end of the marketing year mid 2016.
(3) despite not ideal weather conditions, the Brazilian soybean harvest should reach a magnitude to 100 million tonnes in the spring of 2016. The weak Brazilian currency "Real" helps ensure that the export will be sufficiently attractive.
(4) in Argentina devalued Argentine currency "Peso" will inspire the reduction of export taxes, as well as about 25% the export of soybeans and soy products. The high stocks used for the inflation protection for the market could be mobilised in a first wave. In a second thrust is the increased cultivation of soy beans in competition are to be expected where the soybean is kinder to late sowing maize. The sowing dates for corn is over.
(5) the Chinese soybean imports to rise less than half as much as in the past. Stagnating livestock and a devaluation of the Chinese currency and others contribute to this moderate development.
(6) the growing intentions of U.S. farmers for the spring 2016 are classified at least as high as in the previous year. When average earnings expectations, the U.S. crop compared to the previous year's record income should fall slightly. A further inventory build-up is expected given the high excess stocks.
Soy bean prices are just below the $9 / bu line compared to $10.10 / bu forecast by the years of 2014/15. The Sojaschrotnotierungen on the Chicago Stock Exchange to the tune of 260 to $280 per sht (260 to €280 per mt) keep.
Broad consensus is also that lasted for almost 2 years declining price trend in the soybean field to run slowly.
All estimates is shared, that extraordinary events can not be excluded, but not included in the forecasts due to their unpredictability. To the extent that supply estimates basic guidance.
