IGC largely confirms previous month's estimate for soy 2021/22 In its April 2021 edition, the International Grain Council (IGC) put the global soy harvest in 2021/22 at around 389 million t compared to the previous month. Global consumption is estimated to be slightly higher at 379 million t. The final stocks (EB) increase from around 47 to 50 million t or 13.3% EB compared to consumption . Two years ago the supply figure was 18.2%. Although this year's global soybean harvest is estimated to be 5.8% higher than in the weak previous year, it is still at the level of 2 years ago. The poor US harvest was responsible for last year's result. On the production side , the increased harvests in Brazil (+6 million t), in the USA (+8 million t) and Ukraine (+0.4 million t) contribute significantly to the increase in supply.On the demand side , China dominates with an import volume of 103.8 million t or a share of 60% in world trade . The sharp increase in purchases by China and the delayed Brazilian harvest mean that the previously high stocks in the USA have fallen from 14 million t to an arithmetical 3.2 million t. For Brazil , the IGC only estimates a final inventory of 1.9 million t. For the 3 largest exporters , only 6.5% of their export volume will remain in stocks. In terms of the outstanding crop risks, the reserve stocks remain tight. The La Niña weather phenomenon did not have the expected impact on yields this year. The early threshing results were low and the harvest was delayed by almost a month. Nevertheless, the results remained above average.The rise in soybeans on the Chicago stock exchange came to an end in April from € 425 to € 475 / t. The prices are moving sideways at the level they have reached. Soybean meal (48% RP) falls back to the equivalent of € 383 / t . The growth in soybean oil has also stalled at a high level. German soybean meal (44/5) for May delivery is listed on the Hamburg stock exchange at € 387 / t.
