IGC estimate: 2015/16 decline of global rapeseed production
The International Grains Council sees a substantial decline in world production of rapeseedin its annual preview of the medium-term market developments. The causes are attributed to a decrease in the acreage and the adoption of again average Flächenerträge. The weather conditions favorable prior years will not recur so fast in Canada and the EU. Almost 60% of world rapeseed cultivation is carried out in both regions. The missing using specific effective insecticides plays a crucial role for the EU.
Again is assumed by a steady increase of rape production in subsequent years from 2016/17 . The area under cultivation is crucial, while the average hectare form only a minor role for increasing crop earnings.
The big exporter of canola is Canada with approximately 8 million tonnes with a share of approximately 60% market. The other exporting countries like the Ukraine and Australia vary from 0.5 to 1.7 million tonnes depending on the annual harvest of rape.
The rapeseed consumption largely adapts to the annual production. The use of the food consumption is in China continue to rise. Chinese imports are estimated at a slightly increased level of 4.5 million tonnes. Japan's imports stagnate at around 3 million tonnes. The European Union is also on imports of 3 million tonnes estimated. The use of rape for biodiesel production the dominant factor is in the EU. At the same time, strict rules for GMO canola the EU import.
The high excess stocks of the recent past are systematically expanded in the next few years. A comfortable inventories like in 2013/14 and 2014/15 will be achieved again only approximate in the year 2019/20. The rapeseed supply will be much tighter in the next few years.
However between oilseeds exchange relations, so that the other markets must be indented for the market and price assessment. In particular the two market leaders, soy and palm oil to determine level and direction in the oilseed business.
