IGC: Rape with limited growth potential

Medium-term projections of the IGC to the rapeseed market

The International Grains Council (IGC) published a back-looking medium-term analysis and then a preliminary estimate of the developments in its current Dec. 15 issue until 2020/21 in the canola market.

The analysis of the last 5 years rape production delivers strong fluctuations. 2011/12 crops by 62 million tonnes were achieved and 2013/14 the result rose to 72 million tonnes in the current year only 66 million tonnes estimated. 

The global supply of rare is characterized by the three regions EU-28 with about 22 million tonnes, Canada with average 15 million tonnes and 14 million tonnes of China. The strong fluctuations in the past few years were caused in particular by Canada and the EU.

Canada exports more than 55% of its canola production in the Asian countries of import. The EU has to import some 10% of their rape needs under the difficult conditions of the GMO approval rules from a majority of small States. China must introduce about 30% of the consumption of canola to the stagnant Autoproduction.  

With subdued development adapts the consumption curve . Temporarily increased end stocks are again massively reduced in the current year.  

The typical eating habits of a growing Asian population and rising incomes have contributed to a moderate increase in consumption. The proportion of the Rapsöles to the biodiesel production only in limited narrow framework of admixture obligation moves on the uses side.

The IGC estimates only even half as high growth rates for the next 5 year period until 2020-21 . Supply and demand are largely balanced. The IGC is only a small build-up of inventories.

The production increases are approaching limits of scarce land availability and largely exhausted crop rotations. China has taken a politically for the oilseed sector already years ago on importing and adhering only to the Status quo.

The sets on the demand side fallen crude oil price further ambitions on making biodiesel fuel competition limits from vegetable oils.   

The IGC is its projections as a possible development of the average, which may vary in individual years by weather, currency and politically-related features.

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