11.
08.15
10:21

Low crude oil and palm oil prices set the tone

Vegetable oils under severe price pressure: rising production and low crude oil prices - impact on under-served market of rapeseed

The courses for the leader in the vegetable oils palm oil are within one month of over $600 per t to just over $500 fallen je. The drastic price crash has its causes in a rising generation, increasing inventory build-up and the sharp competition from low crude oil prices. This development affects the wide interchangeability between the vegetable oils also other oilseeds.

The palm oil production is located in the usual seasonal upturn period, which will reach its climax in October 2015. When a throttled paragraph, the inventories increase again significantly above the level of a current production. The impending El Niño weather phenomenon has still not negatively influence himself. Experts calculate on the basis of the most recent measurement data with the first drought in the month of November. The intensity of this year's should be higher and reach up in the spring of 2016. But uncertainty about the actual events will experience great.

The total palm oil production at world level to increase according to the latest USDA estimate by 5.5%. High growth rates in the two largest areas of production are Indonesia and Malaysia reached a market share of more than 85%. Both regions are dependent on exports. Indonesia carries out approximately 65% of its production and Malaysia even 85%. Domestic consumption in both countries is used both human consumption, but increasingly the production of bio-diesel.

Palm oil is supplied in a variety of countries. The focus imports go to India with annually increasing quantities (2015: approximately 10 million tonnes), with stagnant deliveries to China (2015: 5.7 million t) and on a rising scale in the EU-28 with just under 7 million tonnes. The other half of the imports is divided in many small States of import.

The more prices will depend largely from crude oil prices. Strong influences also the second leader to assume soy. This assessment uses a special accent the coming U.S. soy crop.

Rape oil worth stressing is held by the rates of the two market leaders, soy and palm oil at Bay. The globally scarce rapeseed supply sufficient just to juggle the rapeseed quotes at the upper limit of the competition.

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