Mar-2022: USDA cuts 2021/22 oilseed supply 10 Mt lower. In its March 22 estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) significantly reduced the 2021/22 oilseed harvest to around 601 million t (previous month: 611 million t). However, consumption will be reduced by 7 million t less to 514 million t. The final stock falls back to 104 million t . Mathematically, the inventories are sufficient for 74 days (previous year: 83 days). The decisive correction compared to the previous month is due to the reduced harvests in the soybean sector at 354 million tons (previous month 364 million tons). Compared to the previous year, the current result is 13 million less. The cuts are mainly in South America due to the La Niña drought . Brazil lost another 7 million t and Argentina around 1.5 million t compared to the previous month's estimate. Paraquay falls from 9.9 million t in the previous year to 5.3 million.t back; this country's exports will halve. When it comes to soybean exports , Brazil is still in first place with a reduced volume of 85.5 million tons. In addition, there are almost 16.5 million tons of soybean meal. The USA expects an increase in exports of beans to almost 7 million tons in 2021/22. US soybean meal exports change only slightly to 13 million tons. In addition to 2.75 million tons of beans, Argentina mainly exports 28 million tons of soybean meal and almost 6 million tons of soybean oil. On the import side , China is at the forefront with a significantly reduced 94 million tons of soybeans (previous year: 100 million tons) or around 58% of world trade. The reduced Chinese pig population has slowed down the previously customary annual import growth of 3 to 5 million tons. The EU-27 has been importing 14.5 million t of beans and 16.6 million t of soybean meal for a number of years.The USDA estimates global rapeseed production at 71 million t significantly higher than in the previous month, but that is still around 2 million t less than in the previous year. The decisive factor is the Canadian rapeseed harvest, which fell from 19.5 to 12.6 million tons due to the heat. Canadian rapeseed exports fell from 10.5 to 5.3 million tons . In the EU , the rapeseed harvest is still estimated at 17.15 million t . Due to the global shortage of rapeseed, the EU import requirement is downgraded to just under 5.2 million t . Imports of more than 6 million t would be necessary to cover normal consumption. Typically, half of EU rapeseed imports come from Ukraine; these deliveries were interrupted as a result of the war. The full impact will be felt in the coming fiscal year.In the case of the other oilseeds, the increasing production of sunflower oil (+2 million t compared to the previous year) is of regional importance. Production focuses on the Ukraine (6.5 million t) and Russia (5.8 million t) with a share of almost 60% of oil production. Around 75 to 80% of this is exported . However, the war in Ukraine will significantly affect exports from the two Black Sea countries. For the Ukraine, the USDA anticipates an unintended stock build-up from 0.14 to 2.11 million t of sunflower seed. In Russia , stocks increase from 0.195 to 0.69 million tons. The increase in inventories does not lead to falling prices in the importing countries concerned, on the contrary, as long as the impairments caused by the war continue. Sunflower cultivation in the south-east European EU countries reaches a share of 18%. In the meantime, the consumption of sunflower oil in human nutrition is the number one.Support comes from the relative value of the higher quality oil. Palm Oil: The USDA kept global palm oil production essentially unchanged from the previous month at an estimated 75.6 million tonnes. The producers are Malaysia with 18.7 million tons and Indonesia with 44.5 million tons. Both countries together are responsible for more than 84% of world production. Thailand also contributed to the increase in supply with 3.1 million t (previous year 2.9 million t). Palm oil consumption is increasing little. Closing stocks increase minimally. After multiple speculative highs, rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange are being driven up again by the price of crude and palm oil. Quotations for the May 22 date are around €893/t. Still trading at €728/t for the Nov 22 date. Soybean and soybean oil prices continue their upward trend on the Chicago Stock Exchange .The beans are quoted at over €569/t and oil at €1,605/t. Soybean meal prices are also increasing and reaching the mark of 508 €/t with a downward trend for the following months. Palm oil prices continue to rise from the high level they have reached in the wake of crude oil prices. .
