EU COM preview: EU rapeseed market 2022 - increasing harvest - less imports In its spring edition of the short-term forecasts for the agricultural markets, the EU Commission (EU-KOM) estimates the coming rapeseed harvest at 18.1 million t, which is significantly higher than the previous year's figure of around 17 million t. The background is an increased area under cultivation in the main production areas and a slightly higher yield expectation based on the previously favorable seed status. Based on the evaluation of the climate data, the Agrometeorological Institute of the EU (MARS) predicted a probable area yield of 32.2 dt/ha , which should be 0.6% above the previous year's value. EU rapeseed consumption is expected to increase by almost 2% to 21.8 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year. An import of around 4 million t is therefore estimated to cover demand.In view of the war in Ukraine, the figures are still on an uncertain basis, as half of EU imports usually come from this area. On the other hand, a large canola cultivation area is expected in Canada due to the high prices, so that the EU import requirements can also be obtained from there. April-22: DRV estimates the German rapeseed harvest in 2022 at 3.88 million t The German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) estimates in its April issue. In 2022, the German rapeseed harvest was 11.1% higher than in the previous year at 3.88 million t . The decisive factor is the +8.6% increase in cultivated area , which the Stat. Federal Office determined on December 22, 2021. The DRV estimated the probable area yields to be 2.3% higher than in the previous year at 35.9 dt/ha. The harvest results vary in the individual federal states.The largest increase is expected in Schleswig-Holstein with an increase of 25.9%, which is mainly caused by increased acreage (+18.4%). The second highest increase of +23% is predicted for NRW , in this state the area under cultivation has increased again by 15.2%. The DRV also estimates an increase in earnings of 6.8% compared to the previous year. In Lower Saxony , the rapeseed harvest is predicted to be 22% higher than the previous year for the second time in a row. The decisive factor is the expanded acreage of 15.6% and a forecast increase in yield of 5.6%. In Baden-Württemberg, the harvest result is expected to increase by 17.4%, mainly due to the area . Higher earnings than in the previous year are also expected here.In Brandenburg , a 14% higher rapeseed harvest is expected, which is almost exclusively due to the increased acreage. In Saxony-Anhalt , +12.7% more rapeseed is estimated, a result that is also largely due to the increased acreage. The rapeseed harvest in Hesse is +13.4% higher than estimated in the previous year. Here, too, increasing acreage is of crucial importance. In the other federal states, the calculations are consistently based on increasing harvest quantities on a smaller scale. The crop estimate still contains a number of risks. In any case, this includes the uncertainties of further weather developments. However, it is assumed that the current stock of plants is good. Winter damage is insignificant. The big unknown this year will be the use of fertilizer.The scarcely available and very expensive fertilizers give reason to limit the fertilization measures. The area yields could suffer as a result. On the other hand , rapeseed prices of around 700 to 750 €/t at harvest time offer a strong incentive not to reduce the fertilization level too much.
