USDA estimates higher oilseed production in 2020/21 and even higher consumption - prices inconsistent In its June estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the oilseed harvest 2020/21 by 5.3% year on year to approx. 606 million t forecast. However, the final inventory will decrease slightly due to an even stronger increase in consumption, but will still remain at a comparatively high level. In terms of calculations, stocks last for 81 days, compared to 85 days in the previous year. The decisive increase is due to higher harvests in the soy sector. The USDA expects a worldwide increase from 335 to 363 million tons. The additional quantities are primarily due to the Brazilian soybean harvest of 131 million t and the expected high US harvest of 112.3 million t in the fall. Argentina only achieved a slightly average result with 53.5 million tons. Increases in soy consumption will affect the entire oilseed sector, except for falling stocks.China stands out in particular with usage increases of 7.5%, which the country has to achieve through increased imports. The company's own production is only sufficient for 17.5 million tons of oilseeds, with a total consumption of 130 million tons. When it comes to soybean exports , Brazil is in first place with an expected volume of 83 million tons. The USA wants to increase its exports by 10 million tons to 57 million tons in 2020/21. Despite the trade conflicts, increasing US deliveries to China are expected. The USDA estimates that global rapeseed production is just under 71 million t , which is 3 million t more than in the previous year. While the EU is still expected to have a small harvest as in the previous year, an increase of 4.7% is expected in Canada. As the use of rapeseed increases somewhat less, an increase in stocks is expected, particularly in Canada. In the EU, inventories are down 40% on the previous year. For the other oilseeds, the increasing production of sunflower seeds is of regional importance.Production focuses on Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, the consumption of sunflower oil in the human diet comes first. Support comes from the relative value of higher quality oil. Palm oil: For 2020/21, the USDA expects the previous 3% decline in production to be absorbed again. The main increase comes from Indonesia , while Malaysia can barely build on the previous results. Thailand is also contributing to the increase in supply volumes on a small scale. However, the consumption increases mean that the end stocks decrease slightly, but still remain at a high level. The prices in the soy complex on the Chicago Stock Exchange varied inconsistently. The soybeans stabilize at a slightly elevated level. Soybean oil gives way again after an increase phase. Soybean meal shows signs of increasing again after a short period of weakness.The palm oil prices hold their own according to their price low back to higher level. Rapeseed prices have risen, but cannot keep the line of € 380 / t on the Paris stock exchange. The increased euro exchange rate makes the imports necessary for supply cheaper.
