USDA downgrades higher oilseed production in 2020/21 from the previous month In its July estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the oilseed harvest 2020/21 by 4.7% year-on-year to approx. 604 million t forecast. However, a slight decrease is predicted compared to the previous month's estimate. However, the final inventory will decrease slightly due to an even stronger increase in consumption, but will still remain at a comparatively high level. In terms of calculations, stocks last for 78 days, compared to 85 days in the previous year. The decisive year-on-year increase is due to higher harvests in the soy sector. The USDA expects a worldwide increase from 337 to 362.5 million tons. The additional quantities are primarily due to the Brazilian soybean harvest of 131 million t and the expected high US harvest of 112.5 million t in autumn. For Argentina , only a slightly average result is forecast at 53.5 million tons.Increases in soy consumption are reflected in falling final stocks across the oilseed sector. China stands out in particular with an increase in use of 7.5%, which the country has to achieve by increasing imports to 96 million tons. The company's own production is only sufficient for 17.5 million tons of oilseeds, with a total consumption of 130 million tons. In terms of soy export , Brazil is in first place with an expected quantity of 83 million t. The USA wants to increase its exports by 11 million tons to 56 million tons in 2020/21. Despite the trade conflicts, increasing US deliveries to China are expected. The USDA estimates that worldwide rapeseed production is only 69.8 million tonnes , which is 1.7 million tonnes more than in the previous year. A small harvest of 16.8 million t is expected in the EU as in the previous year. The originally expected higher harvest in Canada was downgraded to the previous year's level of 19 million. With rape use remaining unchanged worldwide, an inventory decline with a focus on Canada is expected.In the EU, however, inventories are down 38% on the previous year. For the other oilseeds, the increasing production of sunflower seeds is of regional importance. Production focuses on Russia and Ukraine . In the meantime, the consumption of sunflower oil in the human diet comes first. Support comes from the relative value of higher quality oil. Palm oil: For 2020/21, the USDA expects the previous 3% decline in production to be absorbed again. The main increase comes from Indonesia , while Malaysia can barely build on the previous results. Thailand is also contributing to the increase in supply volumes on a small scale. However, the increase in consumption means that the end stocks will decrease slightly but remain at a high level.After a brief soaring, soybean prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange moved down again. Soybean oil follows. Soybean meal can barely assert itself at an increased level. The palm oil prices give way somewhat at an elevated level. The rapeseed prices in Paris have risen to over € 385 / t, although they have recently had to give in again, but remain above the € 380 / t mark for the time being. The increased euro exchange rate ensures inexpensive import competition.
