USDA increases global oilseed supply- Stock prices under pressure In the Oct issue , the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) estimates global oilseed crops around 4 million tons higher at 548 million tons compared to the previous month. With + 3 million t eliminates most of the increases on soya, whose world harvest to 333.2 million tonnes will be raised. With 67.7 million. t should be rape harvesting again slightly higher than was expected in September. Also the sunflower seeds with 44 million tonnes is estimated to slightly higher. Not much moves in other oilseeds. Soy dominated the market and price action to be completed over the current U.S. crop, to about 40%. The U.S. crop forecasts were compared to the previous month again by 114,33 increased to 116,18 million tonnes. In the previous two years, the crops were 106 million tonnes and three years ago they had achieved just 91 million tonnes. The enormous growth comes both from the increase of the harvest areas, but largely from the Flächenerträgen. Increasing amounts of soy are observed in Brazil . In spring, the coming soybean harvest is estimated at 102 million tonnes. Last year was similar to the expectation was high, but at the end of of only for 96.5 million tonnes as a result of weather-related crop losses. The Argentine soybean crop will be smaller. Background is the unmodified export tax on the bean, while the export duties for corn and wheat were deleted entirely. Argentine farmers reduce therefore the soybean area in favour of other market fruit. The USDA estimated a crop of 57 million tonnes still roughly at the same level as in the previous year. However, be - as in Brazil--with La Niña weather conditions play a significant role. On the demand side is China with its import behavior the main role. According to a share of 63% of global trade 86 million tonnes or 4 million tonnes more soya beans should be shipped to recent USDA estimate this year to China. The question to the imports of maize dry pulp (DDGS), which China has levied on an almost 40% import tax is critical. The resultant loss of protein feed could be replaced with higher soy imports. The EU is second largest importer with 13 million tonnes of beans, to come still increased 21.15 million tons of soybean meal imports the EU. The total demand for soybeans should remain unchanged compared to the previous month's estimate. The result is a strong increase of stocks to 77.4 million tonnes, only slightly behind the record year of 2014/15 with 78.5 million tonnes. The supply situation in the soybean field depresses prices in the whole of the oilseed sector. Also palm oil and canola with less good conditions of supply and demand are affected. After the last year's El Niño drought in South East Asia, the oil palm plantations recovering only slowly. For Malaysia, the harvest to 20 million tonnes is withdrawn. For Indonesia it is unmodified 35 million tonnes. The global canola crops are determined by 4 regions. For the EU , the USDA estimates about 20 million tonnes, Canada reintroduces an above-average crop of 18.5 million tons, China with 13.3 million tons behind previous years left and India reached rising 6.8 million tonnes. Overall, the world harvest behind previous years remains back. Accordingly, the surplus stocks are at the lowest level for years. For price developments the role currently higher crude oil price as a result of the announced or actual cuts the flow yet price-raising. Last but not least, the Exchange rates, dollar, euro and real influence import prices. The currently rising dollar causes price reductions for EU imports of canola and soy.
