Oilseeds market: improved situation in the soy sector - rapeseed remains scarce and expensive In its latest August estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut global oilseed production by almost 1% compared to the previous month. Compared to the previous year, however, generation is almost 5% higher. Consumption is expected to increase by 3.3% year-on-year. This should improve the supply situation somewhat. Soybean production in 2021/22 is estimated 5.5% higher than in the previous year. Consumption is expected to increase by 3.1%. This increases the inventory and could ensure moderate prices. With 137 million tons, Brazil has become the world's largest soybean region. For the harvest in February / March 2022, a volume of 144 million t is expected due to the high price incentives. 93 million tons of beans are estimated for export; in addition there are 17 million tonnes of soybean meal. The main recipient country is China.The USA ranks second with 118 million t. The low rainfall at some locations has led to a slight reduction compared to the previous month's estimate. The harvest in autumn 2021 is expected to be 5.3% above the previous year's level. The export volume is estimated at just under 56 million t (previous year 61.5 million t). In this case, too, the Chinese are the main buyers. The Argentine harvest this spring was 46 mln t and should be in the spring months of March / April. Will increase to 52 million t in 2022. Argentina mainly exports soybean oil (6.5 million t) and soybean meal (29 million t); the export of soybeans is comparatively low at 6.3 million t. On the import side , China is at the forefront with 101 million tons or almost 60% of world trade. Compared to the previous year, imports and around 4 million t are expected to increase. The EU-27 purchases an additional 15 million tonnes of beans, 17 million tonnes of meal and 0.55 million tonnes of oil in North and South America in addition to the 2.9 million tonnes it produces.The EU import volumes have only increased slightly. The main suppliers for beans are Brazil and the USA. In the case of soybean meal, Argentina and Brazil share the quantities almost equally. The USDA estimates the supply situation on the global rapeseed market at just under 70 million t. (Previous year 72 million t). The Canadian harvest , originally estimated at 21 million t, will be scaled down to 16 million t as a result of the heat wave. For the EU-27 , 17 million t are expected; that is 4.6% more than in the weak previous year. Canada's exports are falling from the usual 10.5 million t to 6.9 million t. The main victims are China, Japan and the EU. EU imports will be reduced from 6.3 million t in the previous year to 5.2 million t. Worldwide stocks have fallen from a previous 7.6 to 4.6 million t. Rapeseed is scarce worldwide and will remain expensive for the time being.
