USDA Preview: U.S. soy market until 2024/25 - rising production - falling prices
With the end of the marketing year 2013/14 (Sept./Aug) the had United States lowest inventories of soybeans for decades. Precisely this year delayed the start of the new harvest. To make matters worse, transport problems were added.
The result: despite a record harvest were soy beans at the required locations not available. Instead of expected declines in the prices. Particularly strong buoyancy effects came from the soy meal sector. In the meantime, the front needs could be covered and begin to fill up the storage warehouses. Die prices slowly give in to. Also the high expectations for the South American Harvest help in spring 2015.
The U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) has aligned its views in a long-term study on the coming decade . This are especially the nearest years of interest, while the later dates are essentially determined by calculated trend values.
The year 2014/15 ends with a record U.S. crop of 107 million tonnes , leaving a high end stock. For the year 2015/16, the U.S. soy crop is not quite as high fail. The justification is supplied with a reduced acreage and average earnings assumptions. However, there is already opposition from market circles, who point out that the soy / corn price ratio clearly a higher soy area beneficiaries.
Average consumption increases cause a further increase in inventories at the end of the year 2015/16high opening stock levels and a well at least average crop. A collection of building depresses prices.
The price history reflects the development of the supply. The high level of the past years will not continue, but by just under $50 each dt to be worth slightly over $30 per dt soy bean in the United States fall. The projected reduction of stocks of beans in the later years the price level is back to about $35 each dt rise. The price forecast for later years has only orientation character.
IGC estimate for the world soybean market
In a medium-term preview, the International Grains Council shows similar developments for the soybean market in terms of global production and end inventory development. The year 2014/15 is classified as a record year that ensures the following year with high end stocks for a sufficient build-up of inventories.
The year 2015/16 is considered to be low. A repeat of last year's bumper crop is not taken into consideration. Still the closing stock still at a high level. Multi-year averages calculated for later years. The production development trend is clearly upwards. However, consumption is classified with the result that the slightly reduced inventories are still slightly larger.
