USDA Outlook Forum - high soy crops 2015 - declining prices

Second-best U.S. soy crop by 2015/16 - record harvests in South America

Regularly towards the end of Feb. each year the US Agriculture Department (USDA) to a multi-day meeting invites leading agricultural, in the United States and around the world dealing with numerous presentations on various topics of the future development of the agriculture.

The lecture on the soy market was strongly influenced by the future U.S. soybean acreage and crop yield . Contrary to many expectations of an increase in the soybean area due to the favourable price ratio to the competing fruit, corn goes the USDA by a slightly reduced area (- 0.25%) from. The level of earnings is estimated to 3.8% compared to the record year 2014/15. The US harvest amount to 104 million t (previous year 108 million tonnes, before last year 91.5 million tonnes) amount.

High initial data from the current year and a second-best harvest in the kom coming fall will lead to far over average lichen end stocks in the United States despite a consumption - and export increase. The relationship between closing stock and the consumption was still in the years 2013/14 at extremely low 2.6% and is expected to increase to a maximum mark of 11.4% in late 2015/16.  For the average of the year, the USDA estimated a soybean price for US farmers, which is just under 12% lower than the average of the current marketing year. Thus the ratio of soy to corn price is still at 2.6 to 1 and would increase the soybean according to time-honored market rule.              

US farmers decide less forecast uncertain prices, but the currently achievable rates. The current rate is at 2.5 the brand of 2.2 is critical to 1 to 1.

In spring 2015 from Argentina and Brazil, the South American soybean crop is estimated to record by 150 million tons. There are also still Uruguay with 4 million tonnes and Paraguay with 8 million tonnes.

On the demand side is with moderate import purchases ("only" + 4 million tonnes instead of 10 million tonnes in the previous year) expected the Chinese.

Lower prices are predicted for the Sojaschrotmarkt . Expect higher competitive offers from Argentina, the world's largest supplier of soybean meal. The previous Argentine sales restraint should be less restrictive according to the USDA when falling prices and above-average harvest results.

However, the assumed price decline to a certain increase in demand in all areas of consumption should lead. Also rising livestock will require an additional amount.

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